Standing in the Futures - Conversation Strategy

Periodically I search for updated article on scenario thinking, foresight and futures. Today I discovered a page that is a wonderful resource created by Martin Borjeson on the Well. Scenario Planning Resource. Some of my favorite links are there.

Scenarios are a core element of how I think. The future is inherently uncertain. You cannot predict the future; however you can be better prepared. Traditionally scenarios were about managing risk (particularly for projects with long term horizons - eg infrastructure) and while that’s not changed I’ve always felt they were part of accelerating or maximizing learning; a knowledge engine.

This is a chart from a post dated June 18th 2003 (read it for context). It was about blogging, collaborative spaces and transforming innovation capital. It was about creating stretch for the client. The spiraling of this chart remains true today. In fact today it is even more relevant to me and my renewed interest in the conversation hub.

From time to time I hear scenarios won’t work in a world run on internet time. To that I say crap. Skype was a certainty in scenarios I was doing in 99. Facebook in scenarios done around 02. Thus in each case it was easy to call when they launched and yet companies and people are still scrambling for the What’s your Facebook strategy? The question today is… What’s your Conversation Strategy? This affect the whole organization today.

I bookmarked a thought piece by Jay Cross yesterday about going upstream. Futurists know how to go upstream and bring back stories and insights that are effective alternate environment in which your decisions today may have to play out. Across a range of environments you can optimize your strategies so you are better prepared.

There are a few blogs that do a great job of taking snippets that may or may not be important. Examples IFTF Future Now, Open the Future. There are also many in the VoIP space, the KM space and about collaboration and innovation.

To stand in the future you must also think about the boots you are wearing in the present today. Those boots are a radically different set of tools today. “Listening” today has taken on new dimensions. Similarly so has sharing. The pace of visible thought has accelerated. And yet it’s still a small group that know how to track today (in context) effectively while retaining a ruthless curiosity about tomorrow.

I’m convinced I’m at another tipping point. The same excitement I felt with I must tell everyone about Skype, a similar Facebook changes everything about marketing. This time it doesn’t have a single name on it. My closest thought right now is “Conversation Strategy / Social Hub” and this time it will drive change in the enterprise. It will also be driven from the outside in… social media… and by marketing and HR. It will also involve the adoption of new metrics.

Now that sounds a lot like a prediction. It’s not I have my scenarios — organizations are going to change how they operate. It’s going to take time. Four years ago it was too early with blogs and there wasn’t the social media content available that there is today. There wasn’t tagging, etc. Today that’s reached a critical mass. So too is real-time communications across talk, text, and asynchronous post. When calls are effectively free, friction globally is reduced and the flow of knowledge increases. There’s knowledge in these relationships.

Time to have some fun!