There are days when a number brings home the real reality of VoIP and it’s real irrelevance. Should I perhaps too be celebrating that Skype crossed 14 million users concurrently online? What does this number mean in real terms and is it important?
So my point tonight re irrelevance relates to size. 14 million online at one time does not mean 14 million are calling or talking at the same time. It does mean Skype remains the largest VoIP consumer play. I’ve been online for 12 hours today and I’ve made 4 Skype calls. All were international. All used Skype because its a convenient way to save dollars or make them for free. Not all required a PC. Still i used phones too.
By ways of comparison 14 million concurrent users online is less than the number of new mobile phone connections signed up in India in two months! Nokia sells most of them. Skype’s own blog says like having everyone in the city of London using Skype which they obviously don’t. Thus a very small piece of the world really uses Skype. Although possibly quite a few rely on it’s economics.
There was a time when I could point to Skype and say… “look there is a possible plausible future” for the future of telephony. It was supported by costs. I’d ask… “What’s your Skype strategy?”. We know that Skype going from one million to two million (years ago) was many times more impactful in the boardrooms everywhere. It had and displayed dimensions that traditional telephony didn’t do well. It’s directory was better. It had presence, it had a buddylist and some privacy controls. Over time it has become more like a telecom and less like a piece of software set to revolutionize the world. A fact supported by the lack of API development and telecom communities that have sprung up around other more open solutions.
The growth of Skype hasn’t really changed telecom. It may have helped accelerate the move away from landlines and changed pricing strategies but fundamentally hasn’t impacted on mobiles. Today the growth of Facebook is more likely to change telecom. Telecom directories are obsolete in a networked world. In fact the whole idea of dialing is obsolete too. We’re looking for new methods and new services are emerging. However they are coming where telephony is more open and more likely to adapt to change. Location based services are about to explode. Strategically the “thought experiment” that Skype enabled 5+ years ago is simply no longer relevant. Today, you simply can’t point to Skype in a way that creates the same power that it did then.
Disruptive Telephony: Skype crosses over 14 million simultaneous users!
I didn’t notice the number of simultaneous users in my Skype client today, but the folks over at Skype Journal did notice and Skype Numerologist Jean Mercier captured the occasion with a screen shot. Mercier writes:
“We needed only 35 days to go from 13 million concurrent users online to 14 million.”
It is indeed an impressive statistic. (Confirmed by Skype’s own blog.)
Congrats to the folks at Skype!
So I hate sounding negative on this one. Skype is still a favored tool for many reasons. It’s the best voice video service there is too. I just don’t see the ! on 14 million as really changing anything. The Skype promise that existed five years ago that also embraced a more egalitarian more secure form of P2P based telephony hasn’t found the way to become universal and certainly not mobile. If anything that story has become corrupted. Today, looking at Skype it has not been the CD to the record or DVD to the VCR and it won’t be.
I still believe we are on the cusp of a telephony and communications revolution. The learnings we have had should now be taking us forward. As a VoIP group and industry though we better look for another counter. Looking at Skype is looking at a downstream rather than upstream indicator and that’s always a mistake.
There are new emerging services that still have just a few thousand users. They are the ones we should focus on test and write about. The gamechanges are already out there.
{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
I hope my post didn’t imply that the entire population of London uses Skype – or that all 14 million people were making calls. Of course, neither of these are true.
What’s interesting from my point of view is the way in which the combined behaviour of all of our users produces this statistic – some, like you, will have Skype running all day, and during that time will make a few calls. Others will probably only launch Skype to make a call.
Of course, in many ways Skype has ‘grown up’, but that doesn’t mean that we’ve stopped disrupting the market. The ‘back to basics’ Skype 4.0 betas and a glance at our jobs site should serve as a demonstration of our intent, at least, to carry on innovating. And on mobile, all I’ll say is – watch this space
Stuart,
I must say this was an interesting read. As most, I usually glorify Skype for that they did/are doing, but now it seems like more than they really deserve
Skype still have a very strong brand, and they are an important player in the industry, but as you said – not a game changer.
Tsahi
Peter and Tsahi,
Thank you both for your comments.
Peter, Your comment reflects two things that we both know. The number of users online vs how many different ID’s in a month actually make a call etc or how many names actually logged in to Skype in the last 7 days etc. Skype continues to keep silent on metrics that really matter. Some we know and have seen from time to time. Eg Skype users spend more time talking on a call than the average telephone call. Some data re video. Of course there are subsegments. However as a commenter and someone interested in Skype the facts or the way Skype chooses to share them or what is shared doesn’t help someone like me with perspective.
At one time it was obvious that Skype was growing the overall market for communications. Ie total conversational minutes. If Skype is a market leader or redefining the category then usually one talks about the category. Skype is the only VoIP player that can. Skype has lost the high ground because it doesn’t talk this message. And I know for a post I wrote invented the Billions and Billions of minutes served approach.
The 14 million is just a perspective number. I’d like Skype if it has really grown up to draw a better picture of where VoIP and voip behavior is headed and how to grow the total conversational market.
I’m always interested in seeing the next iteration from Skype. 4.0 hasn’t excited me yet and for the most part I’m on a Mac. It’s always nice to see growth and a company doing well. I’m sure you’ve read my blog in the past. You know my expectations for Skype have always been at a very “high bar”. Intent doesn’t wash with me. The hard core users long ago gave up on a perception that Skype is in the driving seat. It should be still. Only time will tell.
The question I have for you. How do you get to 100m+ rather than 14m in less that 2 years from today? For if I was running Skype that’s what I’d still be thinking about.
Tashi I agree Skype has built a brand. They are also doing some things with Asterisk in the background. They could be doing a lot more. Thanks for the feedback. As I wrote don’t like be negative. Just think the opportunity is in a bigger story with a different slant.
Stuart,
14 million is no big deal indeed, i agree with this.
What surprised me was the 35 days … this was the shortest 1 million time span ever! I didn’t expect this, and i don’t understand why!
Jean