James Enck. What are the main themes over the next 30 to 40 years?
The Bad News: Today we have stressed national budgets, traumatized consumers. High corporate dept rates, and the recovery rate is 1/2 the historical average. (Glad there is some realism here!) The recovery is about doing things differently. The future will not be a repeat of the past. In the future we will be poorer (Obama deficit), many countries are over the 60% rate for ratio to GDP. Sovereign debt is even worse. The fiscal stimulus hope’rs are dreaming. The jobless recovery will be persistent. Add in the elderly dependency ration. By 2050 we hit 50% for everyone at 65 there will be two people to support them. Will be more crowded. We will be hungrier and thirstier. A chart on water use. It will be colder and darker. Need lots of new power just to keep the lights on.
Where is it more promising?
Serious issues we are facing over the longer term. Have some profound challenges to solve. How serious is the industry and do we spend too much time on the APPs and trivia. Focus too much on the current and now rather than the more profound. We need solutions to real problems. Smart Grid, Green Datacenters, Virtualization, Telepresence, Telemedicine. What are the new industries? (Shows the rise of industries to 1970 around electricity.
Wishlist:
More awareness around these issues, more engagement and partnering with small companies that are innovating. Investment – a lot will be required. Re orientate the industry.
My Question. How well are we positioned to think about the long term future?
Overall, no answers although it is key to look at the longer term. Can telco’s change? Is there hope or despair?
One thought. Thinking about the longterm may be pointless if the telco’s cannot move more faster, more agilely than now.
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