A very interesting post and perspective by Tomi Ahonen on how the mobile market is likely to shake out sharewise in 2010. This perspective is from a Finn living in Hong Kong who looks at it from a global perspective. It’s one I try to find a similar balance on too with real direct experience in India and other global markets while living in the US. The comments on the post are worth a read too. I’ve added a few comments of my own below. Read his post for a rundown on Nokia, RIM, Apple, Dell, Samsung, LG etc.
Communities Dominate Brands: A Bloodbath for 2010: the Smartphone market preview
The big battle this year in mobile will be in smartphones. Not because of reasons many pundits and analysts now suggest, that somehow this is that everybody caught the iPhone fever or that Google somehow energized the field with its Nexus phone. No, those are overhyped views with an overly US-centric view
See his post.
For more from Tomi this is a 30min video that makes the case for the next 4billion users and more importantly reinforces the opportunity just around the corner. Some great examples and sound bites. Yes the mobile is the future. This also seems to reflect Nokia’s analysis re banking, SMS, MMS etc. Good numbers and worth sharing as part of the background to his share / competitive analysis.
Comments:
- The ChinaPhone will continue to grow across markets. These phones are likely to steal share – particularly from Nokia in India. They are becoming branded. Dual-Sim also plays a role.
- GPS initiatives like latest OviMaps may help Nokia in some markets. Although until it enables social connections in new ways it alone won’t be a compelling reason to buy Nokia vs say Samsung or switch back.
- Samsung is appropriately identified as going for world domination. I like their latest touch screen phones.They appear to be two years ahead of Nokia roughly in product cycle.
- Believe the article still underestimates the impact of iPhone. Think iPhone evolution has taught users that this is not a phone/mobile. It’s a computer (duh obvious really). That changes many things re the purchase decision, how long I keep it, what comes next etc. Even what I expect it to do. Eg this year I learned to read books and papers on it… I know it takes software upgrades easily… so something better comes out there is a remedy coming my way.
- Carrier subsides re iPhone are well known. It’s a crap phone without a dataplan. Indian sales prove this.
- BBM or blackberry messenger is indeed very popular and helped catapult RIM into some new consumer facing markets. It was the always-on messaging that made this work. I think it has little to do with a qwerty keyboard. This is some middle ground between having the total data package options and being able to message/tweet/share pictures all you want.
- An Apple fan would say… hey wait you didn’t count the iPodTouch and yet your reference the PSP and Sony Ericcson. iPodTouches are going to young kids now in western markets. Before they get much access to computers. It’s a personal portable computing device that gives them access to almost anything straight away. Add games etc. Most six year olds can’t ask for a laptop. They can for an iPodTouch with increasing frequency. No it doesn’t count for share…. of market.
- Android – well hard to know really how it impacts Moto, Sony, LG, etc. Android does appear to be headed in the Window’s model direction. I’m not sure I understood the Maemo vs Android comparison. At one time Apple was better than MS. MS beat them. Maemo remains fringe even though it appears to have so much promise.
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