Finally I’m getting to my eComm posts and notes. On the third day, AR or Augmented Reality came to eComm America2010 in the form of ARConf.  I know many of the telecom crowd didn’t stick around for day three and I feel they missed out big time. Almost 12 hours long, Lee Dryburgh and team pulled together a line up of talks that kept your attention, stretched your perspective and most importantly helped you personally reframe a little of your world view. Few left the room at any time.

I admit I was somewhat skeptical going in. I think AR is like VR was. Overhyped and overstated. Example I can’t get excited by Layar in it’s current rendition although appreciate why it has investor dollars. Yet as with any new technology experience we require the prototypes and users to learn. My purpose with this post is to cover:

1. What the telco geeks that left, missed out on and perhaps a little of what I needed more of in the first two days of eComm
2. What AR challenges are there
3. The next step for AR experiences
4. A future conference thought

1. Telecom, VoIP and AR – What’s the relationship? On one level the answer is seemingly very little. On another at the infrastructure level it’s huge. Yet it took me most of the day to understand this. The thrust in AR is from the desktop to the mobile. The rah rah end of AR today is in companies like Layar – an augmented browsing experience where the information is overlaid over views of the environment. For this to work on the mobile, the cloud has to be very effective. While there was some talk of voice into the cloud embracing the full spectrum of opportunity represented by AR will require important developments in location, sensors, and access. While the AR examples shown were not about voice it stands to reason that voice ultimately is part of this reality.

2. AR Challenges. I heard, over and over, the history on AR and the challenges of the current crop of mobile AR implementations. Biggest problem. AR solutions that look through the camera resulted in a restricted or smaller field of vision. This reduces the impact of the experience, however probably counteracts for the other professed problem… how accurate is the location. Typically off by 27 feet (from memory). By contrast one of the most compelling demos I saw was of a dancer playing virtual instruments she couldn’t see. Albert Hwang the dancer, who calls himself an Information Artist was amazing. Check out his video on Spatial Computing:

I could quickly translate that Smule’s magic piano at some future time would stay in my pocket while enabling a performance. Amber Case, a Cyborg Anthropologist further reinforced this thought with the practical symplicity of GeoNotes and using a belt unit and buzzer for getting you to your destination.

3. The next AR experiences. I don’t believe we will have too many experiences that really change everything through the camera or mobile phone. The gesture of walking along with a camera and looking though the limited lens doesn’t work. I left believing the short term challenge is to enable the AR overlay while your phone continues to reside in your pocket. The obvious example is when walking there’s no need to look at a map and the voice directions don’t have to be delivered in time to make a screeching turn.

Another element of this observation is “speed”. This is one of my new mantra’s when talking mobile and inserting apps into the flow. Unless they run in the background they won’t work at all. Eg Even now waiting for a map to load or a twitter client to switch to a camera to then upload it is all too slow. Waiting for the Yelp app if you can find it (oh search) to identify that restaurant. For those with a 3GS iPhone with a compass I hear Yelp Monocle is quite popular (although I don’t know what that really means). Speed or response to environment remains a key issue.

So there’s a big opportunity for “voice” in the background when or as appropriate. The smart assistant. There’s also the opportunity for considering the “gestures” that the mobile can enable. These could relate to movements, sensors etc. What’s exciting to me is the AR world leads in a direction that makes the mobile ultimately less visible and more practical and personal at the same time. I’ll be writing another post on what AR may mean to iPhone 5.0.

Conclusion:
Ecomm America 2010 was a powerful event. #ashcloud impacted on the curation. I really felt for Lee Dryburgh the organizer, curator, and moderator who had to watch his conference from half a world away. I see opportunities for the next eComm to broaden the “mobile” discussion, broaden insights into global markets and balance the edginess of some apps with the needs in the emerging markets.

eComm is ultimately about people and creating a better global communications environment. While it grew out of eTel and VoIP, the future is beyond Asterisk, and numbers. Communications tomorrow is more likely to be effected by Facebook and Twitter, than Skype or GoogleVoice. The handset is morphing into a computer and yet the future couldn’t be any more unevenly distributed.

A quick dive into AR proved to me that the mobile as a “tool” remains the most exciting device on the planet. As a mobile computer it becomes even more compelling. The stretch remains in infrastructure, whether frequency, or sensor networks and standards and regulatory agreements or in simple UI solutions. Mobile continues to teach us a lot about why websites aren’t engaging. Soon it will teach us how to replace money, educate our children and more.

Right now I don’t know of one conference that thinks very very deeply about the future of mobile. It’s fragmented and piecemeal while overall it is an industry with an increasing set of unknowns. My attendance at the first eTel and then later eComms was driven by my desire to see cost and friction driven out of communications. I’ve watched the shift to communications that are always on with presence, that have moved from simple status updates to ongoing contextual messaging and the acceleration and in many cases the usurping of chat by SMS. I’ve also watched mobile move to a gesture and touch based direction while maps and various mashups around them became more pervasive. In ten years (maybe less time) the website as we know it today will be dead. It will be completely dominated and led by the mobile experience.

There’s real challenges on the horizon for setting the agenda for the next eComm. There’s plenty of issues. Example the gap between organizations and where us users are rapidly finding ourselves. The real-time web, notifications, patents on gestures, more on UI design, more statistics on APP stores, better coverage of the emerging world, and more. The conversation is changing. TV is now part of eComm. Books perhaps. Communications and connectivity is trending to how the tool in our pocket is radically reframing the world.

Bonus Link: check out young Pranav Mistry’s Sixth Sense – “a wearable gestural interface that augments the physical world around us with digital information and lets us use natural hand gestures to interact with that information.”. Here’s a talk he gave at TEDIndia:

Supernova starts tomorrow and I’m planning to attend and do a little blogging while there A few examples of the topics to be covered below.  I know many of the speakers, have done for years and that scares me. On the plus side many of those presenting/talking etc remain on the leading edge (that’s their job!) and part of the reason why I go back. I’ll be reporting or is that blogging tomorrow when “new things” capture my attention or new ways to ask the question. I may find time for a tweet or two.

Supernova is the only forum to examine all of the opportunities and challenges created in the Network Age. With thought-leaders from business, technology and government, we’re building the most powerful human capital network about networks. And, we not only look at what’s happening today, we’re the first to prepare you for what’s coming tomorrow.

THE CHANGING WORLD – Pervasive connectivity is altering everything from our social interactions to our cities. danah boyd,  Adam Greenfield

I presume this will skew to a mobile component, what intrigues me is how “real-time” exchanges are making a difference in the emerging world. There’s lots of value in the always on, video anywhere world but it is the “notification” whether on Boxcar or SMS that is really signaling a change. There is a difference between pervasive connectivity and “real-time” signaling and expectations. I expect there will be some fusion between the two and it is the emerging markets that will solve many of these items. For example – how we pay may not require pervasive connectivity… merely an SMS.

NETWORKS FOR CHANGE – How do we put all this technology to productive use, both for business and for society? Umair Haque,  Anil Dash, David Weinberger, Andrew McLaughlin

I suspect that this session will focus more on government although I’d love to hear now “we” become the network for change. Will this cover the future for money? What about markets for trading my information? When does “aggregating – outside” rather than “inside” the organization become the predominant information paradigm?

Crisis? What Crisis? Strategies for a Connected World – Was the financial crisis a permanent discontinuity in market economies, or just a temporary bump in the road? Either way, can the strategies and economics of the 20th century to translate to the digitally networked world of the 21st?
Moderator Kevin Werbach, JP Rangaswami, John Hagel, Umair Haque, Ellen Levy

I think it is permanent and here to stay. So will be interesting to hear what this group says.

REAL TIME FLOW TRACK: We are moving from a Web of pages and sites to a rich and continuous stream of online interactions. This new model snuck up on us through social networks and microblogging, but it is quickly becoming a core aspect of the online experience. How will the flow model alter the business landscape and user expectations? Track chair Tantek Celik, JP Rangaswami, and then Moderator Tim O’Reilly, Dick Costolo, Brett Slatkin, Monica Keller

I’d probably disagree about the “it snuck up on us” – I blogged elements back in 2003 and even earlier if I go to some scenarios I wrote. Yet I’d hardly say I was a sage about it. I’m more interested in the behaviors and and what happens when we add in location. Location offers new opportunities for escalation that perhaps are better brokered p2p or in other forms of exchanges. What is the role of identity etc.? Does Facebook need to know? Does Twitter need to know? Are services generally too centralized? Is Twitter really the answer to the real-time flow? Let’s hope not! Will anyone be brave enough to suggest what comes next?

Frontiers of Real Time Collaboration – Software tools for collaboration have been around for decades, but have always fallen short of their potential. Are solutions built around sharing social interactions and content in real time the answer? Moderator David Weinberger, Jason Shellen, Paul Lippe, Laura Fitton, Deborah Schultz, Anna-Christina Douglas

I looked at both this session and the session on Mobiles and came away uncertain. What I’d like to hear are “new” real-time examples with deep benefits. Many actions that we now do – eg Tweet a bookmark isn’t new it is just a whole lot simpler to do. Extending the purpose for information and making it easier to share leads to a small percentage of new connections. It seems not everyone is either ready for it or even wants it. However, there is a difference when your job depends on it. Real-time collaboration can also include location – so how does it aid or accelerate escalations to face to face transactions? It seems there is still no replacement.

Overall we’ll see how it goes.

Interesting Background:

• From Conference Calls with Google’s Wave team http://supernovahub.com/2009/10/backstage-with-the-google-wave-team/ ,
• This week in Law’s Denise Howell http://supernovahub.com/2009/11/nov-12-social-networks-and-the-law-in-the-network-age/ and
• Microsoft Researcher Danah Boyd http://supernovahub.com/2009/11/nov-11-class-and-connection-in-the-network-age-with-danah-boyd/ to
• Guest posts from Nokia’s Adam Greenfield http://supernovahub.com/2009/10/guest-post-adam-greenfield-of-nokia-on-urban-systems-design/ to video interviews with
• Wharton’s Eric Clemons (on the theoretical Anti-Trust case against Google http://supernovahub.com/2009/10/eric-clemons-and-the-theoretical-anti-trust-case-against-google/ and
• Internet Guru John Patrick http://supernovahub.com/2009/10/interview_with_john_patrick/ Supernova‘s team has been creating a conversation around the subject of the Network age.

Some interesting comments although few examples provided. As always, good research and design is a mix of talented people and the result of powerful conversations.

Schedule

Innovation through Observation and Design

Some of the best products and designs of the last 10 years have been derived from the study of human behavior. Landmark companies like Apple, IDEO and Intel have used ethnographic studies to identify what we (as consumers) actually do, not just what we say we do. The insights are astonishing and have fueled the creation of great products and businesses.

Yuri van Geest MSc. in Strategy and Marketing, Mobile Monday Amsterdam, TEDx Amsterdam, Trend8 Moderator

• Prashant Agarwal Managing Director, Fjord New York,Fjord
• Robin Boyar Founder, thinktank research & strategy
• Jesse James Garrett President and Founder, Adaptive Path
• Denise Gershbein Creative Director, frog design
• Crysta Metcalf Principal Staff Anthropologist, Social Media Research Lab, Motorola

I’ve captured some notes under general headings:

Observation and Design
Observation and its integration into design depends on where you come from. Most that do UI work come from some other background. There’s a need to blend the two or multiple different perspectives. Issues when Research dictates design and so it can be misused and yet it is possible to frame as an input to the creative process.

Opportunities and Markets
No one has cracked mobile marketing and thus a huge place for innovation. Now we talk context and now it must be much more than that. My device knows a lot more about me and can anticipate and act on. Augmented Reality has a lot to do with location and that will both combine it into one experience and that moment when we move from looking at a device to looking through a lens. “You don’t always have a pencil – you always have a cellphone” so how do we use these devices to make us more mobile and to become more usable. As the barriers between these technologies and networks break down we will see new opportunities where services will work across platforms. Consider how we will tie devices together and how do you supplement the tied experiences. Eg how look at using a mobile device in a social TV experience.

Best Experience
Kindle ties to account – get device and it is yours. Nothing else you have to do. The books etc are there. It’s a great experience and want to see it more. iPhone – map the trail, on the trail and take notes etc. Enables us to extend our intelligence and engage more broadly.

It’s the conversations that enable iteration to find innovative solutions. Inspiration comes from people and getting a variety of different perspectives and thus different mindsets.

Bifurcation of two audiences x and y and then those that grew up in an analogue world. The more advanced handsets are not going to the younger generation. The apps for mobile aren’t meshing with a more affluent audience that didn’t necessarily grow up with this. Counterpoint offered! Get a Mac.. vs HP and N97mobile. Another example … what do contacts and different groups mean. We tend to think people categories groups but when looked at the design etc they realize that it often doesn’t necessarily help them engage in behaviors that they want to involve them in?

Should we assume that the mobile should be connected with the PC?? What is the most unusual way of gathering data. Example coffee. Asked re dumb tourist… what to get the best cup of coffee in London. They didn’t know we were researchers etc. To find faster more flexible ways to find the answers. Lots of ways to make it adaptable.

Question that you ask…
How do you beat Apple at their game? How do you use design as a differentiators. Once you purchase an Apple you have an extended relationship with them. They make it an experience. Marketing is more about engagement today. So now do ‘concepting’ work that way. Not only knowing about the current state but also understanding trends and patterns — must be a future caster so you can make meaning and create patterns out of this. Must go beyond the technology and mobile space. Must look way beyond and being inspired by things that go beyond the digital space by uncovering all the things people are doing. Need to look at other behavior. Must go further. Must take the engineers, designers, etc into the field so everyone has and takes part to really understand the customer/users. Maybe there will be later tech or marketing constraints so need them involved upfront.

Question re multi-touch. For awhile each application will have a different set of gestures. Eg Android vis iPhone is completely different. The expectation is that we want multi-processing and multi-layered process. No getting around the battery-life. Still have to fix the battery life. Apple needs to do more with Push.

• Minimize clicks but the displays remain too small. So have to get better at rich information and visual design.
• Anything you develop give it to 5 yr old and 75 yr old.
• Keep in mind the purpose the app serves in the light of the users.. when where, context etc.
• What is meant by innovation and how open are you to broad?
• Don’t look at mobile design in isolation and look at how it fits with the total ecosystem of devices

I keep reading Apple + Twitter stories and no-one seems to have a clue why it might be a good idea… or a very bad idea… or simply unnecessary. What almost no one does… is tell me a story of why it might be a good idea. This is a crude little thought experiment. An example of where it might lead you is… Could the app/itunes store become the billing engine for Twitter services? Are the Telecom operators financial models the likely casualty? Is iTunes the next bank?

Steve Jobs 2015 WWDC… reflecting on the 3.0 iPhone launch.

I wasn’t there at the 3.0 launch, Phil did the talk. In retrospect we still seemed so unlikely to make the iPhone the ubiquitous communication device. The carriers remained difficult although we had no real competition. The launch of iPhone3.0 was the turning point. Till then the iPhone had been somewhat crippled and we’d made a decision to hold to one app at a time. That was problematic as we had no way to cope with the real-time world that was emerging. For the first two years we had no way to wake an app and it took us time to work out the details.

The integration of the notification services structure changed all of that. It was MobileMe then. When 3.0 launched we had games that kept people synced in real-time. As messenger and twitter clients moved to this same format we found that those running iPod touches could run their fun and communications off the same device. With location based notification services emerging, and new “friend in the vicinity” notifiers people really began looking at their iPhones in a new way.

It seems so strange now. Yet when notifications were read out and played via bluetooth headsets we really began feel real-time updates in a new way. We no longer had to look to a screen for notification. It solved the old desktop / laptop  popup window problem; many of you won’t even remember that. Of course you couldn’t screen the flow then for much. An individuals flow was not finely tuned to them; the messaging still crude.

Yet that’s where our perspective started to change. By the launch of 3.0 we had already seen over a billion apps downloaded. While the phone had been limited to just over 100 we announced then that the iPhone would support 1000 apps without a problem. It would be another two years until we launched “background” services which were effectively invisible background apps. The real money in the apps was to come in the value they brought to notifications. Sure we all had ideas then about shopping and finding a date…. the solutions turned out to be obvious. We also knew we needed real access to this emerging flow. Twitter volumes were exploding. News broke on twitter. It was the future.

We bought Twitter just before Christmas 2009. It coincided with my own new lease on life. Twitter had two key things that were of real importance to us. Yet we said nothing for another year…. We added in the “location” GPS details to every Tweet. We made it even easier to integrate with mapping and we built a telephony contacts API that began to leverage the Twitter profile. We also put in a free SMS messaging service for Twitter users for all @replies. The markets thought we were nuts.

Yet it’s like getting someone hooked on crack and we needed leverage. The combination of app notifications and Twitter notifications started to present our next big challenge. Still at the time it was manageable. Of course now we have the full contract / exchange infrastructure. So the following year at WWDC we realized we had the momentum and the moment.  We used the iTunes store, Twitter and MobileMe to launch a free global phone service. Yep, just like that. still sounds like it comes out of left field. We gave the users more control without taking anything away.

In that year we’d learnt you can set up Phone calls on any iPod Touch. You do it via a message or signal. “Hi Phil, I’d like to talk to you about!”. In fact it was the guys at Phweet that originally set the strategy in motion. In a world of real-time messaging there was no need to use a dial-tone to set up a call. Even then many of us were at the point where we sent a text message first. The mobile operators didn’t see it coming. We enabled Twitter apps to “forward” all tradtional calls (calls without notifications first) to the MobileMe service. Signals for calling would now travel via URL’s. In the iPhone world it was just another screen gesture and any URL could offer the ability to escalate to voice and video.

Over the next couple of years we effectively turned off the dialtone and the keypad. URL’s URI’s became the points you wanted to escalate a conversation around. In the background it really didn’t matter any longer whether it as an old PSTN call, a VoIP call or in which direction the connection to the exchange was made. We almost slipped before we realized that each Tweet and URL could have highly complex services attached to them. We shipped that with the 6.0SDK.

What mattered was we’d put access and response control in the users hand. We’d also shown the developers a market where despite the increasing negotatiated complexity behind the scenes the user experience was easier than ever. Merging the Twitter and iPhone Developer communities accelerated notification service developments. Dropping MobileMe – making it free enable the notification ecostructure to thrive.

Today we face a new opportunities and we think we are ready for it. I spoke before about when the apps effectively went invisible…. iMem 1.0 represents the next generation human OS.

So ask yourself.
Is this scenario even a little possible? What’s your Twitter strategy? What’s your notification strategy? Could Apple pull this off?
These are points of intersection that make could make it interesting.

• iPhone users use Twitter.
• iPhone users don’t use MobileMe much.
• Apple is about to turn on a notification service with iPhone 3.0
• Apple doesn’t have a “profile” or simple directory listing other than what is in the “contacts” and no way to share same.
• More importantly the Twitter profile relates to a URL not a number

What is similar about Apple’s notification service and Twitter?

• Notifications directed at a user (Twitter DM or @, Apple’s SMS popup format) may be public or private.
• The flow of this information is designed to “escalate” / launch new programs and activity.
• Apple can monetize this notification activity.
• Apple is also the gateway to real-time updates.
• The only notifications outside this model are ringing calls, SMS and MMS. (You could perhaps count email too). Twitter supports SMS and email.

So….

• Could Twitter be the world’s independent notification service?
• Will Apple simply usurp the “notification” world by riding on top of the “app” mania?
• Can this combination refine notifications to such a point that the “power and economic structures” around the phone / mobile change dramatically?
• Does this change who should be interested in Twitter?

I read a wonderful piece by Malcom Gladwell today about David and Golaith. Apple has learned the fullcourt press.

I’m at the Social Media Strategies conference today. We’ve had the introduction and I’ve frankly been experimenting with QIK. I recorded most of the first session by propping my iphone against the open screen of my laptop. The video is here. I’m also tweeting along in the background.

I’m fascinated by the approach and comments that are already emerging here re Social Media. I’m pleased to be hearing comments on customers, and on improving the bottom line. That’s an interesting contrast to the KM community discussion that I participated in more recently.

One element I can’t help covering. I’m always interested in who uses what. This room is fairly full. I’d love to see some inventories. Eg who uses which tools.You know papers around the room that get people to sign up or provide details on their activities. Table discussions, a wiki etc. I’m looking to get audience stories and problems. I see lots of round tables – the format base is there. One day I will get to create a really interactive social conference. That includes making sure upfront we know the tags, the video uplinks, the blogs etc. I’m not sure where to find these.

I don’t know why we don’t build conferences like this differently. Socially!  I sit here and want to hear how others use Twitter. I want to see people using it on cellphones. I want to see the Qik team doing stuff. I want it to be clear to everyone how and where we can create content. I won’t profess to knowing how to use all these tools better than someone else. I know many use Facebook better than I do. Other have great frontline stories or are implementing new programs.

We need to move beyond the blog mistakes and the legal issues. I believe there are large issues in how organizations adopt these tools. What we are failing to do is train the attendees on how to take it back into their organizations. That begins with getting them familiar and confident using the tools. We are failing in the immersion element.

I’d like to offer a five day mobile social media immersion program. Or even a week! It will be hands on. It will be discovery. It would have some provocative experts inserted from time to time. Its would be limited to less than 100 people. It would be intense and it wouldn’t just focus on PC or mobile Skills. It would certainly start by listening to each other. That’s something we keep forgetting. The first rule of social media is to start learning to listen. It would be primarily focused on giving the individuals the skills stories and personal materials that lets them loose.

I sat in earlier on a session on the Future of KM. There are three very different people on the panel. I’ve been listening with half an ear. This means what I write may have nothing to do with the context of the session. However, part of the reason we come to events like this is to spark other thoughts and tangents.

So far today I’ve not heard the word “flows”, I don’t hear “lifestreaming” I still feel what I am hearing is that knowledge is to be managed, moved, manipulated. Plus I just heard Dave Pollard say that SARS, 9/11, Katrina etc were all failures of classic knowledge management. I can’t quite put my finger on why KM isn’t learning and moving forward more quickly. It suggests to me that there remains a bigger problem.

Individuals are increasingly using personal tools, blogs, wikis, social networks, mobile phone, etc. As they move into this realm publicly they create more information about themselves. I’m increasingly seeing these tools being put to use by marketing / PR. KM seems to be missing these social media implications. Thus adoption of these tools is not being driven by the need to manage knowledge. Rather it’s driven by responding faster, being more adaptive, building on what others do, opening up systems so they can find that they need just in time. It’s a learning centric approach. I see it when I go to blogging sessions and talk to people there. The difference is they are believers.

I have a feeling I wrote something about this last year. I did. I wrote a post on use it first then talk to me. I wrote in that post about Flock and said “the social browser” why isn’t it commented on. This year I’m fairly certain I won’t hear a word about Chrome. I summed up that post with the following.

There is no KM2.0 model today. Perhaps that is the way it should be. Fragmented. Fragments certainly fit with Dave Snowden’s theories. Maybe we should just throw out the concept and go back to me, you, and us? When you use these tools everyday it’s easy to forget that the rest of the world isn’t quite there yet. Sharing and creating the stories of what could be.. I think that is exciting.

I had listed a year ago Facebook API, and tried initiating some Twitter activity. Today Twitter is more visible although most I’ve spoken to want to run a mile from it.  Although I’d be pressing forward recommending that the future is now emerging with the social iPhone, and the app environment that it is now creating. That’s where you can accelerate your learning. Note many of the successful iPhone apps were generated off the Facebook learnings which were obvious a year ago. At each phase or evolution of social media learnings are being aggregated. Being successful requires more of the person and their understanding to be successful. This is not just about dollars. Today I look at the iPhone which is now rapidly creating location based opportunities that will redefine business interactions.

I’m thinking more and more that the social media experts are likely to usurp or overturn many KM practices in time. The fact that SAP, Oracle and IBM are today all working with Twitter like updates is at least encouraging. Maybe they can still sell a knowledge platform?

Ton Ziljstra writes a recent post on Conversation Symmetry and Twitter. I’ve used much of his logic in managing my Twitter so far. However I’ve really fallen behind on “following” and must address that. Concurrently all the recent “twitter outages” affect how I view it and force me to double check the content is current.

Om Malik addressed the “outage problems” for me in an effective description here. In a nutshell he sums it up as a content management system being used as a messaging system. I actually want it to be both. It must have the robustness of the CMS and the speed and performance of the best / instantaneous SMS or notification systems.

Then should we pay for it? Om suggests those using it effectively for marketing at no charge should pay! That seems counter to common logic. Let the lurkers and their followers pay with an ad view. Why penalize those driving the traffic?

Still, I don’t have a way currently to group tweets… or label my friends. It would help me to be able to tag them. (eg friend, work, project z, spammer, local, etc.). I could import everyone that follows me into a wordpress blog and assign different tags to each import (one or more). However, that does mean more work. The result would be I could get the slices I want… just like I get in Google Reader (eg all VoIP blogs) or those I track for innovation.

There has been lots of discussion over time about Twitter tags and #tags etc. The most relevant info is on the Twitter Fan Wiki here. It seems to have died down or people have just moved on. I’d like something simpler. I just want to have a twitter interface that allows me to group who I follow… be it called a label, a tag etc. Then I want to see those different views. Fact is.. the potential exists for any twitter client I’m using that creates a database (think image uploaders) they could also let me sort these views. Might make them more interesting.

So while I’d like all sorts of tagging, and grouping capabilities I’d be happy with something that acts more like groups in my address book. (private group). Then I could go on expanding my Twitterverse and retains a sense of knowing what’s going on.

I’m also betting that Twitter is unlikely to go away or be superseded anytime soon.

Picture is of Twinkle – Public tweets within 10 miles on my iPhone. No one is tweeting much on iPhones in my area…. go 25 miles and there are many more. Sniff….

Dan York cannot give up his landline. For many of the same reasons I’ve not given up on mine. Luca says do it. I think there is more to this trade-off than just the landline. Dan or Luca haven’t talked about their Cable TV or digital entertainment costs. I think they are quickly merging with the telephone bill. In fact it is all communications. Users just don’t see it yet as packets or connectivity. Increasingly I see it as when I am connected / always on… I can do all these things and my access is not limited other than by my time.

Rather than the landline let’s talk TV. What may go here at home next is the TV cable service. My analog TV’s are now almost obsolete by law. Each year when my son comes home from college I learn a little more about file sharing, and watching stuff. He doesn’t have cable at school yet he’s always watching programs that my limited cable service doesn’t seem to provide. The eye opener for me this year is “SurftheChannel.com”. All the latest TV shows and movies of all sorts on demand. It took one quick look for my daughter to be hooked and she texted her friends.

For the most part my watching is all on Tivo. I actually see little difference between my Tivo approach and SurftheChannel, Fox.com, NBC.com which also are streaming hit shows. Add in a site like Jaman.com. If I look at the 50 bucks I pay the cable company for TV then it represents 20 movie rentals easily. Go back to Netflix and I can stream from there too. Twitter provides me with a better breaking news service than CNN so really why do I need this old TV thing?

It’s hard to give up things we are used to having and using. I really think I should try to do more InternetTV watching. I think I will be bugged by missing live sports more than anything should I take this course of action. I’m going to try it now for a month. That’s my commitment after the final of Lost tonight! Which I can see tomorrow streamed as above.

Why would I do this? Drop the landline and the cable TV and I save approx $70 per month. I can reallocate the dollars. It could be 3 family members upgraded onto iphone plans (2 out of 3 would love that) or some combination along with a lot more selective rentals. Plus I’d have some excuse to get a fancy 1080p HD LCD Monitor. Then maybe everyone’s iPhones could become personal remotes etc. etc.

In the meantime I’m stuck with a tollbar on that landline and my wife loves the new convenience of using SkypetoGo that way and our bills are not at risk. I’m basically constantly fighting the increase in our communication costs / budget. VoIP on the mobile is another way I fight it and find convenience. Yet the net is actually becoming more and more entertaining. I also see this on my iPhone where I watch more and more video.

So, how will this shake out? How can I put my laptop in couch potato mode? My son does. His laptop is always plugged into his 32 or 36inch LCD screen and quickly switches from PS3 to TV to InternetEntertainment to Work etc. Between the wireless mouse and the remote it all seems seamless. Then it took me quite awhile to find “FrontRow” on my mac. Apple Key + ESC.

For me this Summer may be the “TeleVideoization” for video content that Napsterization brought to music and changed our musical life forever. It’s about time I started watching stuff I really enjoy rather than just what’s on the tube or prerecorded on Tivo. Plus I want to learn more about it and what I want. On that we know the SNS drill.

Still when I watch my son use his gear I know it could still be easier. A lot easier. Be nice if it also had many less wires. Of that I have examples my Apple Time Machine and my HP wireless WiFi all in one printer.

Then maybe I will find I can’t live without my TV. We shall see.

While recently in India, Dina and I explored the iPhone factor. We saw it in the wild (eg. people using them) and talked to 18 to 24 year old leading-edge mobile users in Mumbai. We were both left a little shocked! While focus groups aren’t statistical research and Mumbai is hardly an Apple stronghold; the iTunes store is not even available in India. The comments and the future of the mobile in India and in fact, across the world, is beginning to look profoundly different.

From Phone to Computer in my Pocket.

First a little about the 18 to 24 year olds we were talking to. Evenly split m/f most were in college or just finishing up. Not one could imagine life without a cellphone. On average they were spending about 1000 rupees per month ($25) on a prepaid plan. Postpaid plans were not popular. This group was uneasy if their balance got below 200 and would then top it up. All had Nokia or Sony-Ericsson phones. All phones were recent models. The oldest would have been 18 months max. Typically they all want to trade it in once per year. Cost of the phones. They put their budgets at 12000 to 18000 rupees… so $250 to $400 so all were targeting high-end phones. Daddy and mummy were paying and they would get it as a birthday or special holiday gift.

They said they called as often as texted (the cost of a one min call vs a text is similar) and I’d think efficient with calls. None of these would have had voice mail. Prepaid plans don’t provide it and in India the “missed call” is an important signal. They also make international calls to friends overseas. Often connecting via cellphones and then moving to MSN or Skype for video conferencing. Note they often don’t have sole access to a computer, it may be shared and often in a fairly pubic place. The personal stuff and communications are on their mobiles.

Mobile phones are a high interest topic and item of status amongst these kids. (Similarly here! My daughter came home and said one of her best friends got an iPhone for her 16th birthday; now she wants one – at her cost re the plan!) They are very aware of brands, and features. Moving between makes (eg Nokia to Sony Ericsson) can be a hassle for moving contacts etc. They all want better cameras, they don’t see why they shouldn’t be incorporated. They also wanted memory cards in standard formats that would work across devices; all the sizes are a hassle. Without exception they wanted faster battery life.

When asked about their ideal mobiles they became animated and started talking the iPhone. Interestingly they identified it as having WiFi but didn’t make this connection with Nokia N-Series phones. In fact they were quite damming when it came to Nokia which is far and away the market leader. Example they saw the N95 and other slider phones as problematic. The stick is still a great format. The N95 was seen as very over-priced.

When it came to the iPhone they were quick to list its failings as well. Commenting on music sharing limitation and the lack of a decent camera and no flash.

For this group; the iPhone and Apple were clearly the aspirational brand. In fact they talked at length about budgets and basically how they would negotiate with their parents to set up the purchase of the iPhone as their next mobile. A lot had to do with iPods and music and consolidated lifestyle. All-in-one is popular in India. It’s never really applied to a small computing device before. However mobiles have radios, mp3 players and cameras in them as standard almost. This all in one with video etc… makes this even more attractive.

When it came to describing brands and their attributes; Nokia was the clear winner for everyone, providing versatility, resale, general performance etc. ( think Toyota in America or like Shahrukh Khan one of Bollywood’s leading men). It’s a little past its prime with this group, not sexy and yet their next phone may still be a Nokia. By contrast the Sony Ericsson brand came across with these users as more sexy. They have a very edgy music campaign with a big Bollywood star (Hrithik Roshan) which appears to have been successful in the last year. The “Shake” in songs is both a neat design solution and working.

This group roundly dismissed the “China Phone” as beneath them. Although they were quick to point out all the features and recognize that loud sound was cool. Yet with no brand, poor resale and no advertising these phones will remain niche and companies like Sony Ericsson will adopt “Shake” features in their own phones and branding. This group won’t be trading down.

Touch is the new aspiration. HTC was mentioned along with Apple as the phones to look at and desire. HTC was first with Touch type phones we were told. They also talked about these devices as being the new laptop, the new way to be always able to connect.

When designing their mobile phones (if you were the designer) they talked of “modding”. They wanted modular hardware and ways to trade up or enhance or keep the phone up to date or perhaps personalize and extend its life. They see modding the iPhone with new hardware upgrades as well as software. In fact they would go even further and like to see it shipped as a bare bones chassis, select the case, the camera, the memory etc. It’s perhaps not surprising they see it this way. They have their PC’s assembled or cobbled together. They have service and repair guys that can put these things together and cellphone parts are visible everywhere. There’s a good chance this market will emerge anyways. They also wanted things faster, easier, and simpler. This has a lot to do with entertainment updates.

So what did I learn?
The iPhone potential is bigger than I would have expected. The opportunity for carriers to convert users to postpaid from prepaid accounts will be huge and fought for. Vodaphone probably has themselves a sweet deal and position with the iPhone in India. They go premium end and lock high end users into data etc. (Even if 3G isn’t even close!). India could well be a larger iPhone market than the US in months rather than years.

There’s a new world to be addressed in parts, modding and retailing the iPhone in India. It’s going to harder than Apple might think. It would be a good time to open some more visible stores quick in the major cities. They better be HUGE! Plenty of malls being built.

Nokia may be in trouble, it faces a huge challenge at both the bottom end with products that are doing more… particularly as entertainment devices, and at the top end by having nothing that comes close to competing with the iPhone. They are about to get squeezed. They still have more banners, more phones, more retail outlets etc than anyone else. Still their outlets aren’t going to be sexy enough when Apple stores launch. Sony has built some awesome Lifestyle stores in India, I’d say they are having an impact. Mobiles alone aren’t enough and the perception in India is you are getting a “usable” lot more with the iPhone.

Net Net. Leading users simply “lust” after the iPhone; even in India.

I’m keep hearing about the technology; WiMax vs 3G vs WiMax, Skype or SIP etc. Andy wrote a post suggesting that Video would be a key component defining what next in IP communications. That’s getting closer to why it might matter. There are comments here, here, here, and here. None of these really tell me a story. None really promote a scenario where I can see what a company or companies may do which excites you and me in such a way that our behavior changes. There was also no time put on it. When will this happen by? I’d suggest it could be quicker than you think (although it almost always never is)

Let’s be clear Skype changed behavior, first with audio that was better than the phone and more recently with video that from my perspective is best in class (although it still lacks multiparty video -SHAME and a decent mobile client).

Create a Scenario:

So where’s a story that might just illustrate what can change, who will adopt it and where video is most likely to pop out? In what product can it be introduced without cannibalizing other products and also enhancing reasons and rationales to trade up.

Many of my readers know I have quite a passion for the iPhone. I’ve also really enjoyed my various iPods. So this is a little scenario about the upcoming iPod vTouch. It’s really simple. To make it credible it also helps to have a few mocked up or real newspaper or blog headlines. It makes it all more plausible. Eg in 2029 Steve Job’s Clone takes over. Seriously these are more here and now.

• iPod Touch VoIP Phone Calling – January 2008 present as: “Geeks announce Free Calls for all iPod users”
• New iPhone Clone – iPod Touch? February 2008 present as: Sprint provides Parents with $120 per year Unlimited Talk Text Video plan for iPod users.

Introducing iPod vTouch:

Sometime in September 2008 Apple will announce the iPod vTouch. It will come after the 3G iPhone which will be going live in I don’t know how many countries now. It’s a new enhanced video version that will let you share and chat in video and about videos over WiFi. Unlike the iPhone the iPod vTouch doesn’t have a camera on the back or a phone inside. By contrast it has a webcam on the front next to the screen and naturally it will have to have a mic. Likely to be crippled or require an upgrade. So quite likely that the headphones may have a mic. That keeps the speakers and mic outside of the body just like the current iPhone. The dongle mic speaker is then an option.

So now we have an iPod vTouch that does video calls. It doesn’t matter whether you hold it in video or portrait mode. It leaves enough upgrades open and differences to still make the iPhone more attractive to those that have the money.

What can the iPod vTouch provide.

• Video Calls. I don’t really care whether SIP or Skype. Either one can / could work on the iPhone platform.
• Video in Video… Watch the YouTube video together and talk about it at the same time. Share your music in a call. The iPod touch can usher in the next generation of communication.
• Mobility. For many kids and in many markets the PC is shared and in a central room or area. The beauty of the iPod vTouch is you now get your mini computer to surf the web, talk to friends, to use anywhere in the house. If you thought portable phones were preferred then this takes BFF’s (best friends forever) to a new level with a webcam.

Why this strategy makes sense.
It introduces a new iPod to young users who aren’t going to get the iPhone yet. Their next step will be the iPhone in 3+ years time. They won’t want anything else. Apple quickly gets a youthful platform that will introduce and use the video in new ways. The freedom to access video chat in any hotspot will make many activities on the PC obsolete or tired. On the iPhone this will have the same impact for us oldies when you add in GPS.

It fits with Apple’s strategy which effectively start younger than Nokia et al. Phones are demanded by kids, and few can demand the iPhone from their parents. Unless it is always on the price premium is too large and the plans aren’t justified. So this puts a highly mobile internet device in their hands. It works at all their friends places. it provides them with their first webcams (in many cases, and they will use it) and they can use the VoIP connection to play the music, share the video etc together.

Video for Apple is what Music was five years ago. Last night I was watching vTap videos on my iPhone while watching TV (weird I know). Sharing short video is the way forward. Whether live; putting the camera on the front makes it easier for two or three to be in the picture which will sell a lot of speaker /mic for the iPod. All the iLike programs then become more powerful. Who’s playing what etc. Battery life can also be managed differently on the iPod.

It will add a presence capability to the contact list. It has to come anyways. eg Contact is online in a WiFi zone you can call now etc. Probably even tie it into facebook etc.

Will it Succeed?
We simply don’t know. We know that both the iPod and iPhone are basically the same device. The Touch is such an elegant device that it got me and I’m sure many others to go out and get an iPhone. Ie the kids brought it into the house. They will even argue and begin using the vTouch to keep down their mobile minute usage. Thus again teaching their parents about low cost calling, transferring their landline to VoIP and so on….

Concurrently you have an iPhone 3G about to launch. It will be enterprise ready. In fact yesterday talking to someone at HP it would appear that they are testing the iPhone Enterprise inside. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised It’s the perfect enterprise client for Apple and now they just need all of EDS and HP using it… It won’t take long for SIP / VoIP to make its way into the cost savings plans.

Apple is closing in on creating a platform that is bigger than the total PC market. If they stick to enabling it like upgrading MAC’S and keep encouraging others to build on it both software and hardware then it becomes very interesting. Their strategy is working when Fedex replaces their delivery thingy with an iPhone. Oh and that version… may have a slightly larger screen. Same platform.

What’s it mean to others?
I think Apple’s smart phone competitors will be pulling their hair out. Sony may have the talent inside to address it. Nokia I’d like to their what next. Motorola well they are history and it appears so is the Windows Mobile platform. Blackberry? big?. Nintendo would be fun to work with. What should PC manufacturers do? HP, Dell, Lenovo or Acer?

Finally, does this have anything to do with WiMax? Well WiMax is symmetrical and would encourage P2P sharing of this type. Prototyping next generation sharing on the iPod Platform (which has also sold millions) could make selling in a bigger proposition to the carrier easier.

Can it come quicker than we think? If Apple wants to win they have to move all the social networking onto and into the phone pronto. Video is a key component today on the PC. I can’t wait to have it on my iPhone V even if it remains limited to WiFi for now. Oh and now where is the home phone?????? Anyone seen the iPod? Mum Dad, get me an iPhone. You can have my old vTouch to replace the home phone. Altec Lansing speakers can ring and ring. Now anyone in the house can video phone for free!

Plausible or not? You tell me.

18 months ago I bought my daughter a Nokia n73 in India as a birthday present. At the time it was about the coolest phone I could get for her with a 3mpx auto focus camera etc. She’s a torture test user. The first keyboard lasted one year before the whole joystick and keypad underpinnings needed replacing. (I did it with parts from eBay out of Hong Kong with instructions by YouTube). Just over a month ago the keyboard was dead again and this time the screen was cracked (stepped on) and the “zoom” / “volume” button was broken. The case was highly scuffed. It sounds bad and yet I think this is quite typical for a teenager who’s phone handles thousands of text messages. So broken phone in hand I took it back to India to get it repaired. In the US I would have no idea where to take it… and the cost would probably be prohibitive.

Here’s what I spent on it – a total of Rs. 2300 (less than $60). Rs. 1600 for a new “original” case (could have spent Rs. 350 for a knock-off case – couldn’t really tell the difference between the original and the knock-off), Rs. 300 for the joystick and Rs. 400 on the repair – changing of the case, replacing the joystick and keyboard, fixing the zoom which wasn’t working smoothly. And all of this done in one hour, in my presence. I was offered Rs. 4800 ($120) for the phone prior to the repairs. Cost of fixing was Rs. 2300 ($60). That’s half the price of what I would pay for a new phone.

You would be amazed at the number of “mobile” repairers. Most repairs are simple like the keyboard and case above. Some like the volume control required a little more expertise and surgery on the motherboard. Their equipment is almost non existent. A few in the building had a laptop and could update software etc. It’s a relatively low cost profession to get into. There’s no obvious qualifications and I’d expect that it is very competitive.

These are pictures of repair desks in the upper floor of Manish Market. While many of them were fixing the “China Phones” fixing Nokias and other models was common too. In fact one of Nokia’s strengths (not sure if by design or because of “fake” parts) is the availability of cases and keyboards. You can pick these up almost anywhere. Downstairs in Manish market these parts were all being wholesaled. You are in a place where anyphone can be fixed or even just upgraded with a new case etc.

At one stall I stopped and asked him about the “knowledge” and he responded that he had a “guru” (mentor). I tried to share that I’d learned some of this via YouTube and he looked at me completely blankly. Many of these repairers were sitting side by side. I’m not sure if they were “guru training” sessions or not. I was pointed to one larger repair outlet/store that was also providing training courses.

When I heard Jan Chipchase speak recently about these repair centers he reinforced how much easier it is to get into this repair business than the TV repair business. Both by “number” (more handsets than TV’s) and the limited space requirements or even can repair almost anywhere nature of this business.

I’d think a good portion of the business is also refurbishment. I didn’t see beaten up second hand phones for sale. Most are gleaming in new cases. These phones are usually recent 1 year to 18 months old and selling for approx half the cost of a new phone. It’s also a signal that “trading” one’s phone is common practice. Certainly the upper market kids I’ve interviewed are wanting a new phone and trading them in around the year point.

The repair market is central to accelerating learning and enabling rapid upgrading of phones. At first one just wants access. Then when the phone is also a radio that’s a “free” bonus. If it has a memory card they can also then play the music they want. Ringtones become a big thing too. The mobile is rapidly introducing more than just communications to the bottom of the pyramid.

We may not feel that a new mobile is much to brag about (although iPhone users like flaunting them!). For the most part they are inferior to other things we have that do…. music, TV, Video, surfing, mail, radio, clock, etc… If you have never had any of these you perspective is quite different.

For many the first phone brings greater economic success. Then you want to use it to express yourself. It’s like having a first car and then getting air conditioning in the second. I suspect that music is the single biggest driver for the first upgrade and increasingly that means the phone needs a memory card. A camera is the other driver although most phones have one now. Both of these create a demand for more sharing which bluetooth helps. Concurrently speaker phones and louder speakers become interesting. It’s now a tool for the family and entertainment as well as business. Trading up doesn’t take long.

Obvious pain points for trading up. Contacts! Although many don’t keep the contacts or the info on the phones as the mobile may not be private or personal in the sense that we treat it. At home anyone may use it. Example is used by a wife who may erase who she called so the cost wasn’t on her phone. And this sort of brings us back full circle. It also helps to explain why 12 and 13 year olds are so knowledgeable. They may well have brought the phone into the household. The mobile is a household decision or head of household decision.

When phones and aspirational new cases, new features and accessories are everywhere, it is easy to see that trading up, getting repairs and doing deals on a new mobile is part of the conversation. Most importantly this conversation is not controlled by the operators. As they don’t subsidize the phones and most users are prepaid, the phone you want and use is a personal choice. The economics not skewed by contracts in fact they are more likely to be influenced by resale value and availability of low cost parts. Whether by happenstance or design it remains one of the reasons Nokia has such a dominant share in India.

One learning then perhaps for many products in the emerging market. How do you create a robust repair and resale market? For developed markets… how do you do the same and empower DIY repairs? Also see Jan Chipchase’s post on informal repair cultures – Cultures of Repair, Innovation – at the end, he raises the question – “given the range of resources and skills available what would it take to turn cultures of repair into cultures of innovation?” I think it is already happening!

A few years ago my brother gave me a book Investment Biker. Written by Jim Rogers a VC who took a motorcycle on a tour of the world and then from what he learned made investment decisions. I think we’d both like to follow that dream and ride around the world that way. I know from my many travels that each new place can fuel curiosity and insight.

I know I’ve been very lucky over the last two years to have lived for extended periods in India and visited many different parts. For similar reasons China has been on my wish list for years and I’m still not sure when I’ll get there.

Many years ago I also led a management team out of New Zealand and on a round the world learning journey. It changed how we approached the local market. It made us better at asking questions about what people do. We also were forced to ask ourselves why we did things in certain ways. We also ended up buying home grown costing software from Ireland. We brought stories back and told them. We put them into a local context. Reading about Sony in the Wall Street Journal today and there is a similar story.

The desire to travel and invest or expand and or import both ideas and learning are powerful reasons to reach out and explore different markets and the way things are done.

While I’ve been working more and more with Dina on research projects I’ve seen instances where the client never really gets into the market. It’s left up to the researchers. It’s also the research departments in firms (or suppliers to that firm) and often not the “product” or “innovation” teams that makes the visits. It takes a team to rethink a business and that must be cross disciplinary.

A few years ago the laundry business was rethought for the BOP, Base of the Pyramid and the case study for laundry sachets is widely known. It’s expanded to Shampoos too etc. While in India this last time I spoke with a company that was spending 100′s of thousands on product development research. They were completely lost. In fact I think the problem was they had sold a promise and an approach which was turning out to be both impossible and unlikely to deliver any product at all. They were focused on the consumer and income levels. However, they had failed to understand the systemic changes required to bring about change. Their problem was they hadn’t either found a good local guide and or found “remarkable” people that could really help them see new opportunities. In the meantime they were burning up their research budget.

I’ve found India fascinating. The need to research a company’s product opportunities and enter or improve growth in the Indian market being key motivators. I’ve also noted a growing trend. More teams and people are coming from the mothership. That’s good. It also means they are dwarfing the cost of the research with travel (most go business class) and five star hotels which aren’t cheap. Add in a week’s good living etc. and the real cost of the project may be buried in expenses. The local research cost relatively may be small.

This is both good and bad. Good that these teams are visiting and seeing things first hand. Bad, in that few companies are taking a broad enough view of the local immersion. Going half way round the world for a few groups misses out on too many other things that should be in the consideration set. The real ah ha….’s won’t come out of a single in-home visit or from listening into a focus group alone. More importantly to me is that the most innovative new products seldom come out of a group or a single insight. They come out of understanding the “friction” between different needs and environmental factors.

I’d probably argue that if you are spending on multiple global centers, I’d spend the same and expect more relatively in the markets that are exploding – china, brazil, india, etc… than in markets that your traditional success has come from.

Research costs are not the same globally, although great insight and advice always comes at a price. The simple fact is you can still do more groups, more in home, more ethnographies in emerging markets than you can in the US or Europe for the same bucks. Thus I’d argue invest the same bucks and expect to get more. Go more in-depth in these markets and then take home new questions and test them.[pic on right courtesy behavior research]

For the most part I still feel that local or domestic market research influences emerging market research. I think this is ass backwards. Use the emerging markets to influence how you think about your more traditional markets. You may be surprised by the results.

Then the cost of investing a few extra days in “learning” too is negligible. What it does require is a “guide”, access and planning. It can’t be random if it is to have impact. Recently a healthcare group came over. On day one they were “exposed” to traditional Ayurvedic Massage. Which also means “naked” (barring a loin cloth) and lots of oil being massaged into your skin and scalp. (It’s awesome and shocking the first time). That little event more than broke the ice – it created confidence and the desire to look at everything differently.

Its become common practice for us to encourage clients into this zone. Concurrently, it helps to capture lots of pictures or video. I think there are even more opportunities to share and create and there’s a need to take artifacts back home. The success in the end is the stories people tell when they go back home. Research should provide rich stories and easy ways to tell them. Linking them to learning points, remarkable people, things you have experienced first hand brings in the emotion and the passion for these opportunities.

While it is easy to talk “market research” or “customer insight” it’s all about learning and how that is transpired. We participate therefore we are! If you really want to energize your product development / management team, immerse them in a larger learning program and move the event into the emerging market, concentrate some research, confront their senses, provoke them with “radical – remarkable people” and help them create scenarios. Then evaluate back home after additional work and create the strategies on how your decisions should play out. That’s our approach at Mosoci!

I guarantee you will get a better return; on insight, on options, assessment and evaluation.

I’m sure many will ask me why buy the “China Phone” hadn’t I seen enough? Will you ever use one? The answer is simple. It’s a learning sample, an artifact to share, and something I can get a physical reaction and response to from others. Plus it cost me just over $100. And you can laugh as it won’t work in the US as it isn’t tri or quad band and it works on the wrong spectrum.

Then there is the fun I had haggling down the price and the very real reactions I had from top end users when I submitted it in an Indian focus group session (another post coming!).

From a product development standpoint where we are all ingrained with Nokia’s, Treos and iPhones it’s really nice to have something to play with that confounds both expectations and judgments. My “China Phone” (it will never be a Prince see the box) will never be a killer product here and probably wasn’t in China either. What it does is makes you see things differently. For me that is the point of many research projects. To think different, to see the world through a new lens. These are a few areas where my exposure to it has helped me think differently.

Think Different:

1. Sound! It’s louder than any phone I have ever had. It has four speakers. This sound perspective is much broader than just the mobile phone. It is about getting noticed in very noisy environments, it is about sharing music when hanging with friends or being able to fill a small room with sound. Here’s a contrast story (perhaps too close to home) my daughter complains her new iPod Touch doesn’t have speakers, it makes the iPhone way cooler for sharing. The Touch needs speakers. It also needs louder speakers. It really matters when sharing video.

What’s interesting is this sound perspective works into other product categories. Who’s ever heard of a phone that plays music better than a laptop, (better may be louder!). These phones beat my MacBook Pro. If you have such a phone would you buy a laptop for music or iTunes if it didn’t play it out.. or have longer battery life etc? And on this phone the speakers are understated. Others come with big round speakers and I saw 8 and 12 respectively on other phones.

Point is a simple phone of less that $100 has really re-framed what I’m seeing and begs a whole lot of new questions about sound and entertainment. The difference is the emerging Indian consumer is likely to purchase a new DVD, laptop, TV etc coming from a “mobile” perspective. By contrast we buy mobiles already having used those products which form our perspective. Mobiles for us.. tend to under deliver. They do browsing worse, play music worse, etc. In fact they are just plain hard. What I see in the China Phone on sound is they perform better (better means louder for some segments in India) than the “branded” models (Sony’s Walkman phone’s aren’t in the same league on music and yet are marketed on music).

2. Sharing and Service: The buyers of these phones don’t have a music collection. Music comes from some “music provider” who has a PC in the back-room and loads it onto the card. It’s a small fee or even free with the phone. As none of the users have ready internet access, bluetooth becomes a simple viral way to share. I still see little bluetooth sharing of files here. Once in a while, a picture. However, when the music is loud and audible… sharing and requests are more likely to come.

This phone has many smart phone features built in. Although how you transfer a contact list is not easy. I am so used to synching one Nokia with the next (it’s a real lock-in strategy) that I was pleased my iPhone could synch with my Mac. There’s no directory thinking in this China Phone. I’d have to start from scratch and that would be impossible. Sharing vcards is built in; probably another reason for the bluetooth.

3. Touchscreen: Yes it has a single touch screen. For most things it works better with the pen rather than the finger. I find the text input difficult although I can see how the touch screen really helps in China. For English letters it is just a slow input method. I’ve not really mastered it or found the setting I prefer.

I have to wonder why it has taken so long to get effective touch screens coming into mobile devices. I was using Palm’s handwriting 10 years ago on a PDA. Then abandoned. Apple’s typing touch screen on the iPhone is a huge leap forward when you see it like this. I’m convinced we’ve been too wedded to keyboards and small screens. Picture dial, buddylists are more effective than numbers. The days of the number centric phone are probably numbered. The question is what sort of keyboard is required.

China Phone – Prince A950.
Google it to find out more details. It’s basically the same size although thicker than my iPhone. The screen 320X240 is larger than my N95′s although less resolution. The aesthetics are generally good. The key pad is ok and generally I get how the keyboard layout works.

The menu system seems very Nokia-like although I don’t know what it is based on. There are no surprises in the menu. It follows what the traditional cellphone manufacturers do.

Quick / shortcuts are available for music, messaging and the phonebook. This works very effectively.

Sound is loud from the speakers. Even the 2mpx camera / video makes a very very loud and ugly click. The camera is ok but you wouldn’t buy this phone for its camera. Unlike many popular phones it doesn’t have a radio built in. However, the next step up in price has radios and TV’s built in. Sound for calling is only ok.

It has a connector cable that is both USB and charger ready. The charger is not elegant (similar to Nokia’s and is 110 to 240 volts ready. Thus you can charge from a PC or wall socket. You can also read the disk on a Windows PC. I couldn’t read this phone from the Mac. No synching appears to be available. My experimentation here was limited to putting on music and that took time. Most users of this phone would have someone put the music on for them.

The instructions are Chinese. It comes with a headset and second battery. There are two sim card slots inside. The battery is a good size, plenty of talk time here. There’s no warranty that I understand. Various people have told me that drop them a few times and it is done. Although I’ve visited a busy repair market for these phones.

This phone is not a status symbol in a brand sense; it is very good value and I can see why many budget users are moving up to them. The response here from my kid friends was generally favorable. It looks cool, the sound really stunned them and most wanted to make it work. It doesn’t look cheap. As I won’t be really testing it I can’t tell you how long it stands up to abuse. However, I suspect that more and more getting more than 12 months out of your phone without a rebuild / repair is good going. One thing missing in the US is an effective repair and rebuild market. It doesn’t exist because phones are just too cheap.

Overall, I’m impressed with this phone. We certainly lack the choice for mobile handsets in the US. I’ve seen hundreds of models for sale in the same place in Mumbai. As a purchaser you are probably better off buying a refurbished Nokia that’s a year or so old than buying this phone. However, then you would miss out on the latest statement. It’s a Ghetto Blaster Phone. I think they are likely to become a whole new genre.

I made my first visit to the Dharavi Slum yesterday. Often described as Asia’s largest slum it remains central to Mumbai’s development and thriving economy. I have a few stories and themes that I want to weave together.

I cannot help having the stark contrast in mind when we define the US middle class. Recently the US election candidates have been touting income spans up to $200K as middle class for tax packages and planning. I grew up with the stereotype of two cars in the suburbs and a color TV. This isn’t what middle class means in India, even though they now talk about a middle class approaching 250 million. It isn’t the middle class we know and yet this group is changing everything and on the cusp of India’s change and boom.

What’s middle class? In part, this is what I saw with my eyes and yet the other details I cannot begin to get my head around. In the Dharavi Slum you may have up to 650 families per acre. Redevelopment programs are happening and people are being displaced; although it is hard for me to see how this place would be better as a result of such developments. There continues to be local resistance to these programs.

Sakina invited me into her home. Entry is by a steel ladder. Her home is much lighter than the home below with a “clearstory” open air skylight. In total it is 225 square feet. Basically 10 feet wide and 22 feet deep. Near the entry there is a nicely tiled toilet and shower and running water. (This is not common!) She has a small kitchen with LPG stove and refrigerator. The house also has a TV (older) a landline phone for inbound calls only and an Aquarium close by the front door. Bed and bedding cover the rest of the space. I sit on the bed almost afraid to stand with the two ceiling fans on and not wanting to tower above them.

While drinking Chai members of her family come and go. Her son is in the 9th Standard (15 years old) and will get a cellphone after passing the 10th standard she says. Her daughter in law comes in and starts preparing vegetables. She squats on the floor and starts cutting them in her hands and dropping them into a stainless steel bowl. Pottery or china is a luxury with perhaps the exception of tea. You can see why everything is done sitting on the floor or perhaps sitting on the bed. They will eat sitting on the bed probably watching TV. I don’t even remember a chair or stool in the place. No table.

Her husband works in Dubai she didn’t want to go and leave family and work permits probably made it impossible. I must say the room was spotless. She had a mobile phone. No PC, or computing equipment in the house. A huge picture of Mecca. Many of her family members work outside Dharavi. For many it’s a choice to continue living here. My guide too although his “car for hire” business is run from one of the suburbs.

After having tea we dropped down into the street. Two doors down, downstairs I entered a similar sized space. 4 people were making sandals. These were for wholesale and would be branded later. They make 15 to 20 pairs a day. They had a number of clear plastic bags against the wall. It represented about a weeks work according to them.

Upstairs there was a T-Shirt manufacturer. Maybe 5 sewing machines. All were busy. There was almost no room to move in there. They would have gladly stopped for me. Oh did I say it was close to 100 degrees in all of these spaces? You can also forget about safety, wiring, etc.

Both these factories would appear to be owned by the same person or someone in the family and perhaps some relation to Sakina. Not really quite clear. They all pointed out the Redevelopment Banner. I really can’t see how they would be better as a result. I doubt they enable the factories in these new housing centers.

Around the corner there are STD (phone kiosks) everywhere. I passed an Internet cafe in this area (15 rupees per hour, no discounts etc.) There were 7 PC’s in it and the owner actually worked for another man managing clothing production for Marks & Spencer. The cafe was full.

This world remains a long way from being connected beyond the cellphone. Then I learnt more about that from a group of 13 year olds and that’s another story.

This little visit and snapshot for me was invaluable. Too few companies and visitors come and see these things. While you can commission research in India unless you have a keen eye or some way of internalizing that knowledge back home you aren’t going to come up with better products. Often it’s a few stories that you will take back home Whether Finland, Chicago, or Palo Alto you won’t begin to understand “sound” or “dust” or “recycling” in an Indian context.

Let me close with a couple of examples. PC Dust covers (not seen in Dharavi but covering electronics is common) and just the thought of a hot laptop burning one’s thighs (where are the tables!) or the inadequate speakers that laptops come with. Laptops fit the space better and it would be worth exploring the “lap” factors. Similarly, my learning from the “China Phone” (yet another story) is that all laptops have inadequate audio built in. They cannot even compete with the latest phones for “music”.

In a market that is exploding with mobile phones (10 million sold last month) low end laptops (15000 to 20000 rupees) are competing against them (full featured china phone 4000 to 6000 rupees) and new TV’s (5000 to 10000 rupees). I didn’t go into the PC markets this time. I’ve visited them in Delhi in the past and just running out of time.

I just suspect that the ALL in One that we see in mobiles (There are “China phones” available with TV’s built in plus the MP3 and FM radio) means…. no requires one to really rethink the multimedia laptop. I certainly would be if it was my job! There are a huge number of opportunities here and a dumbed down Macbook is not the answer.

For a few more pictures. Huge thanks to Dina for arranging it. I’m cross-posting this week.

There’s a meme going around about where my information is. Loic wants it back. I started on this process some time ago thinking about lifestreams. Then Stowe chimes in with it’s all about flows. Both are right. We are learning to reconfigure how we capture and share expanded lifestreams in an accelerated environment. It’s also about peripheral vision. We seek detail when it’s triggered. A flow strategy is paying off in that regard, however, it’s not replacing more thoughtful conversation. See also this post on ReadWriteWeb on comments.

Concurrently, we want more fine grained control over what goes where and to whom. Somehow I’d expect Marc Canter (in fact he sort of has on March 28th) and PeopleAggregator to weigh in on this one. What we still need is a useful and effective identity construct that enables us to share and expire content and relationships. Then broadcasting might become lots easier, be in context (yours and mine) and by relationship.

/Message: Beyond Blogs: The Conversation Has Moved Into The Flow

Basically, conversation is moving from a very static and slow form of conversation — the comments thread on blog posts — to a more dynamic and fast form of conversation: into the flow in Twitter, Friendfeed, and others. I think this directionality may be like a law of the universe: conversation moves to where is is most social….Twitter and other similar apps are based on the web of flow: information of interest comes to us, not the other way around. And it flows through people, through relationships: it’s not a bunch of clicks on URLs, scrolling, and so on. It’s a move away from hunting and gathering and into relationship agriculture: information grows in our flow applications instead of us spending time hunting it down