The Apple world is full of fun speculation. Apple fans expect innovative new products. So let me introduce you to iChart! Apple’s upcoming killer Enterprise product.

iChart is a flip chart on steroids. It borrows the best from the past, building on the lowly paper flip chart and the easy sharing built into Electronic Whiteboards. It redefine the future of presentations. iChart breaks the monotony of the PowerPoint / Keynote presentations with live customized notations (by the presenter), audience participation, and simply pinch and zoom sorting. Finally, the flexibility of transparencies again. And yet so much more….. Airplay, video conferencing, and dual or multiscreen presentation possibilities. iChart is the future for any boardroom presentation, training room discussion; presenting the data in a format more adaptive and free flowing, enabling the presenter to work the displays in  a multi-modal fashion. Like brainstorming? Like post-its? Like enabling an audience? Let them scribble post-it notes on their iPhone or iPad and see them magically appear.

I’m not quite sure why I woke up with this idea, or if it has been suggested before. I know I’d read something about Airplay and multiplayer gaming coming to the next generation AppleTV (still speculation really out there). There’s also plenty of speculation written about whether or not Apple will enter the living room with large displays. For me…. iChart…. a huge flip chart sized display provides a perfect example of something that really uses the big screen in a new way and like the iPad which enable more personal and intimate “sales” exchanges (vs a laptop example in a doctors office) this enables a more creative conversational style around a large screen device. Perhaps a flip chart is too small. Yet I can see ad agency execs carrying it as part of a portfolio case. Importantly, iChart would take the iPad, iPhone further into the Enterprise environment. They would be great at conferences.

So would you want an iChart in your business? How would you use it?

Will iChart kill other telepresence / video conferencing products with it’s FaceTime built in? What might it mean for networked meetings? What special apps could it be loaded with? How might these be used in store? For promotions?

What would the real screen specs be? How much would it weigh? How low could the cost be? It appears the real cost will be in the screen?

Finally I’m getting to my eComm posts and notes. On the third day, AR or Augmented Reality came to eComm America2010 in the form of ARConf.  I know many of the telecom crowd didn’t stick around for day three and I feel they missed out big time. Almost 12 hours long, Lee Dryburgh and team pulled together a line up of talks that kept your attention, stretched your perspective and most importantly helped you personally reframe a little of your world view. Few left the room at any time.

I admit I was somewhat skeptical going in. I think AR is like VR was. Overhyped and overstated. Example I can’t get excited by Layar in it’s current rendition although appreciate why it has investor dollars. Yet as with any new technology experience we require the prototypes and users to learn. My purpose with this post is to cover:

1. What the telco geeks that left, missed out on and perhaps a little of what I needed more of in the first two days of eComm
2. What AR challenges are there
3. The next step for AR experiences
4. A future conference thought

1. Telecom, VoIP and AR – What’s the relationship? On one level the answer is seemingly very little. On another at the infrastructure level it’s huge. Yet it took me most of the day to understand this. The thrust in AR is from the desktop to the mobile. The rah rah end of AR today is in companies like Layar – an augmented browsing experience where the information is overlaid over views of the environment. For this to work on the mobile, the cloud has to be very effective. While there was some talk of voice into the cloud embracing the full spectrum of opportunity represented by AR will require important developments in location, sensors, and access. While the AR examples shown were not about voice it stands to reason that voice ultimately is part of this reality.

2. AR Challenges. I heard, over and over, the history on AR and the challenges of the current crop of mobile AR implementations. Biggest problem. AR solutions that look through the camera resulted in a restricted or smaller field of vision. This reduces the impact of the experience, however probably counteracts for the other professed problem… how accurate is the location. Typically off by 27 feet (from memory). By contrast one of the most compelling demos I saw was of a dancer playing virtual instruments she couldn’t see. Albert Hwang the dancer, who calls himself an Information Artist was amazing. Check out his video on Spatial Computing:

I could quickly translate that Smule’s magic piano at some future time would stay in my pocket while enabling a performance. Amber Case, a Cyborg Anthropologist further reinforced this thought with the practical symplicity of GeoNotes and using a belt unit and buzzer for getting you to your destination.

3. The next AR experiences. I don’t believe we will have too many experiences that really change everything through the camera or mobile phone. The gesture of walking along with a camera and looking though the limited lens doesn’t work. I left believing the short term challenge is to enable the AR overlay while your phone continues to reside in your pocket. The obvious example is when walking there’s no need to look at a map and the voice directions don’t have to be delivered in time to make a screeching turn.

Another element of this observation is “speed”. This is one of my new mantra’s when talking mobile and inserting apps into the flow. Unless they run in the background they won’t work at all. Eg Even now waiting for a map to load or a twitter client to switch to a camera to then upload it is all too slow. Waiting for the Yelp app if you can find it (oh search) to identify that restaurant. For those with a 3GS iPhone with a compass I hear Yelp Monocle is quite popular (although I don’t know what that really means). Speed or response to environment remains a key issue.

So there’s a big opportunity for “voice” in the background when or as appropriate. The smart assistant. There’s also the opportunity for considering the “gestures” that the mobile can enable. These could relate to movements, sensors etc. What’s exciting to me is the AR world leads in a direction that makes the mobile ultimately less visible and more practical and personal at the same time. I’ll be writing another post on what AR may mean to iPhone 5.0.

Conclusion:
Ecomm America 2010 was a powerful event. #ashcloud impacted on the curation. I really felt for Lee Dryburgh the organizer, curator, and moderator who had to watch his conference from half a world away. I see opportunities for the next eComm to broaden the “mobile” discussion, broaden insights into global markets and balance the edginess of some apps with the needs in the emerging markets.

eComm is ultimately about people and creating a better global communications environment. While it grew out of eTel and VoIP, the future is beyond Asterisk, and numbers. Communications tomorrow is more likely to be effected by Facebook and Twitter, than Skype or GoogleVoice. The handset is morphing into a computer and yet the future couldn’t be any more unevenly distributed.

A quick dive into AR proved to me that the mobile as a “tool” remains the most exciting device on the planet. As a mobile computer it becomes even more compelling. The stretch remains in infrastructure, whether frequency, or sensor networks and standards and regulatory agreements or in simple UI solutions. Mobile continues to teach us a lot about why websites aren’t engaging. Soon it will teach us how to replace money, educate our children and more.

Right now I don’t know of one conference that thinks very very deeply about the future of mobile. It’s fragmented and piecemeal while overall it is an industry with an increasing set of unknowns. My attendance at the first eTel and then later eComms was driven by my desire to see cost and friction driven out of communications. I’ve watched the shift to communications that are always on with presence, that have moved from simple status updates to ongoing contextual messaging and the acceleration and in many cases the usurping of chat by SMS. I’ve also watched mobile move to a gesture and touch based direction while maps and various mashups around them became more pervasive. In ten years (maybe less time) the website as we know it today will be dead. It will be completely dominated and led by the mobile experience.

There’s real challenges on the horizon for setting the agenda for the next eComm. There’s plenty of issues. Example the gap between organizations and where us users are rapidly finding ourselves. The real-time web, notifications, patents on gestures, more on UI design, more statistics on APP stores, better coverage of the emerging world, and more. The conversation is changing. TV is now part of eComm. Books perhaps. Communications and connectivity is trending to how the tool in our pocket is radically reframing the world.

Bonus Link: check out young Pranav Mistry’s Sixth Sense – “a wearable gestural interface that augments the physical world around us with digital information and lets us use natural hand gestures to interact with that information.”. Here’s a talk he gave at TEDIndia:

Jon Husband has spoken with me about his work with Michael Cartier and the impression it has made on him. This is a thought provoking video. I’m not sure I’m ready to see any one of these scenarios come into being… although parts of all of them are already here. Still if you need a starting point for thinking about the economic and political / power backdrop looking out a few years… this is a quick way to start. I’d hope we will work for a better society. Although much is against us. I must say… I feel I’m part of the NET Generation although I don’t qualify on the age terms. Where should I run… are we really screwed?

Jon comments:

I have been translating (from French) and contributing to the work of Michel Cartier, whom in my opinion is the francophone world’s answer to Alvin Toffler nd Marshall McLuhan rolled into one.

In this video, at the end Michel offers a brief glimpse of four possible worlds in which we may want to live .. consumerist, (renewed) participative democracy, environmentally conscious, and oligarchic soft fascism (security state).

Are You Ready for the 21st Century ? from Michel Cartier on Vimeo and take in the detail at Constellation W

Another world IS possible … and indeed desirable !

A “desirable world” would operate based on an economy of responsible markets (markets which are more human and more local). To get (eventually) to that desirable state, humans will need to use a participative electronic public space (Internet 2) which, based on dynamics we are beginning to understand, should enable the types of consensus necessary to generate sustainable development policies and practices.

Essentially, we are not moving towards the centralization or unification of our societies. Instead, we are collectively moving towards cultural and economic possibilities and consequences based on the inventiveness and adaptability of citizens everywhere. These forces will develop into an “economy of proximity” wherein communities of interest will filter their activities based on the dominant cultural model of one continent or another.

What appeared to be only a “normal” financial crisis in 2008 has quickly become a major and global economic crisis in 2009. It’s increasingly likely that the crises we are now seeing will eventually become a social crisis with lasting repercussions. That probability also makes it likely that the impact will be even more severe for the world’s developing countries.

Because the growth of our societies are today quite dependent on the pace of consumer spending (which relies on peoples’ confidence), current growth rates waned at the same time as normal levels of confidence began to erode. The proposed short-term strategies (interest-rate cuts, recapitalization of the central banks and certain businesses, tax breaks, etc.) will not be enough to break the cycle of deflation and depression now appearing to settle in. While some suggest the crisis is nearing its end (minor levels of growth have resumed in some countries) as a result of massive stimuli, increasingly it seems clear that the solution to the current crisis cannot be Consume more !

I’m reading the NYTimes article on Apple’s app store and for anyone that reads me there’s no surprises in it. So lets think more broadly about the real implications and the strategic options. How is the app store evolution challenging Apple or what options is it creating for it? Then what might it mean for you, your mobile aspirations, or retail focus? Is Amazon threatened? eBay? Craigslist? Nokia? RIM? Android? This is not a prediction – its just meant to broaden the conversation.

App Store Is a Game Changer for Apple and Cellphone Industry – NYTimes.com

“There’s never been anything like this experience for mobile software,” Mr. Smith says of the App Store boom. “This is the future of digital distribution for everything: software, games, entertainment, all kinds of content.”

For example…

• iStore: At what point does the iTunes store (when to rename it the Apple Store? or iStore?) become even more like Amazon? When books are added? When magazines? What about all the contracts for services. Can Avis, Hertz etc be far behind ZipCar? What’s the cost saving for getting rid of the counters. What about airlines? Obviously there’s a real intersection between cost savings, a unique app and whether or not it is free. It may still be along time before Expedia can check me in on a Continental flight.
• iListings: If Apple behaves more like Amazon, should it just enable third party stores within the store? Would this type of approach not help to eliminate the developer issues re approval? That could also take the store into other territory that becomes interesting. Eg. Amazon isn’t local it is global. However the iStore is potentially local for all sorts of local services. I’ve called them mobile social classifieds when talking about twitter in this regard. The “persistence” factor is not a strength on twitter, however new listings by local is huge. How does Apple harness this opportunity? Simple add another “app” like contacts. Now it’s classifieds – apply a fee structure and reputation system to it. Many of the elements already exist.
• iTrade: As Apple drives the iStore harder it becomes my store, my trading point. Again unlike Amazon with the data in the palm of my hand the iStore must help me trade my information, my location, and my desires. So far Apple is acting like a traditional online store. The opportunity is to bring us into it. When Apple thinks about “core applications” like iTunes, contacts, notification server, they now need to think about my personal trading capability. They also need to think about sending money. I have an iTunes account. You have an iTunes account. It should be easy to send money. In fact Apple long term should think about creating its own currency and providing dividends to users that trade their info on the iStore network.
• iAccess: Now for the iStore to work for me Apple must give me more control over my data and be very transparent about it. It must help me with notifications as a replacement for traditional call signaling. It must help me broker my access and provide the filters that I’ll require.

Perhaps it all sounds a little far-fetched. The momentum behind Apple, and the touch screen is huge and yet there remain many risks. I read recent data that Samsung sold 40 million touch devices last year. For Apple to win they must accelerate sales of the iPhone/iPodTouch around the world (can’t do it at current prices points). So what opportunities exist to accelerate “commerce” around the iPhone?

Ten Year Strategy? iMoney: There’s easy a 10 year strategic vision in putting these components into play. Developers are proving why every company needs a mobile and app strategy. Apple’s strategic preference will not lead it automatically to becoming a trading network where the devices are reduced to the importance of a Fedex delivery driver’s handheld. Go into an Apple store and get your latest checkout on an iPodTouch (slightly augmented) and it becomes easy to see Apple can put a cash register in everyone’s hands.

I think that’s strategic. That’s the difference between thinking about mobile money and mobile wallets and “ringing up business”.  It may also be a fact like that which makes iPhones “cheap” in the emerging markets. It may be the banks that are happy to subsidize the “cash registers” of the future where the receipt is just an SMS and the receipts are all owned by the individuals. So as new users come on to the iStore they already have a trade-able history.

Four Apple APPS for your iPhone: When one puts a hat on like this.. the RIM stores, the Android, Ovi, etc stores just don’t seem to cut it. So… let’s close with four “APPLE APPS” that could really change the current thinking.

1. Cash Register. Let anyone one ring up and collect money for goods or services anywhere. (proof is already in the Apple stores) SMS receipts to any number or iTunes name. More … when does Home Depot or Sainsbury’s let you use it to check out when in their store? Gosh customer pays for the register…
2. Mobile Social Classified (these also appear in the store and new local listings.) Simple format. It’s already proven.. uses Twitter/Craigslist like functionality with photo, video attachments etc. Most are free. Money is in the cash register. Jobs and cash for work.
3. My iStore Balance. This also has a reputation element. However it lets me send money, receive money etc. It may also help me manage multiple identities. Eg let me make payments using a TwitterID. (needs an improved definition!)
4. Feedback. Take the feedback function out of the store and enable a broader form of feedback. Whether product, service, place, content, etc.. this feedback become a “bookmarking” system much like we use Del.icio.us. It’s a great place to capture my interest on problems I’m having or things I need fixing. This is important for tying back to third-party suppliers.. all those cash register services etc. It’s also perfectly appropriate as “context before a call request directed at any large company.

Making these transactions more transparent is important to further building trust in the iStore as my trading place. Once we can aggregate or pay for some of our services via our iStore we can also aggregate our demand. And that is real power.

Apple, put the store in the hands of the user – the iStore!

Supernova starts tomorrow and I’m planning to attend and do a little blogging while there A few examples of the topics to be covered below.  I know many of the speakers, have done for years and that scares me. On the plus side many of those presenting/talking etc remain on the leading edge (that’s their job!) and part of the reason why I go back. I’ll be reporting or is that blogging tomorrow when “new things” capture my attention or new ways to ask the question. I may find time for a tweet or two.

Supernova is the only forum to examine all of the opportunities and challenges created in the Network Age. With thought-leaders from business, technology and government, we’re building the most powerful human capital network about networks. And, we not only look at what’s happening today, we’re the first to prepare you for what’s coming tomorrow.

THE CHANGING WORLD – Pervasive connectivity is altering everything from our social interactions to our cities. danah boyd,  Adam Greenfield

I presume this will skew to a mobile component, what intrigues me is how “real-time” exchanges are making a difference in the emerging world. There’s lots of value in the always on, video anywhere world but it is the “notification” whether on Boxcar or SMS that is really signaling a change. There is a difference between pervasive connectivity and “real-time” signaling and expectations. I expect there will be some fusion between the two and it is the emerging markets that will solve many of these items. For example – how we pay may not require pervasive connectivity… merely an SMS.

NETWORKS FOR CHANGE – How do we put all this technology to productive use, both for business and for society? Umair Haque,  Anil Dash, David Weinberger, Andrew McLaughlin

I suspect that this session will focus more on government although I’d love to hear now “we” become the network for change. Will this cover the future for money? What about markets for trading my information? When does “aggregating – outside” rather than “inside” the organization become the predominant information paradigm?

Crisis? What Crisis? Strategies for a Connected World – Was the financial crisis a permanent discontinuity in market economies, or just a temporary bump in the road? Either way, can the strategies and economics of the 20th century to translate to the digitally networked world of the 21st?
Moderator Kevin Werbach, JP Rangaswami, John Hagel, Umair Haque, Ellen Levy

I think it is permanent and here to stay. So will be interesting to hear what this group says.

REAL TIME FLOW TRACK: We are moving from a Web of pages and sites to a rich and continuous stream of online interactions. This new model snuck up on us through social networks and microblogging, but it is quickly becoming a core aspect of the online experience. How will the flow model alter the business landscape and user expectations? Track chair Tantek Celik, JP Rangaswami, and then Moderator Tim O’Reilly, Dick Costolo, Brett Slatkin, Monica Keller

I’d probably disagree about the “it snuck up on us” – I blogged elements back in 2003 and even earlier if I go to some scenarios I wrote. Yet I’d hardly say I was a sage about it. I’m more interested in the behaviors and and what happens when we add in location. Location offers new opportunities for escalation that perhaps are better brokered p2p or in other forms of exchanges. What is the role of identity etc.? Does Facebook need to know? Does Twitter need to know? Are services generally too centralized? Is Twitter really the answer to the real-time flow? Let’s hope not! Will anyone be brave enough to suggest what comes next?

Frontiers of Real Time Collaboration – Software tools for collaboration have been around for decades, but have always fallen short of their potential. Are solutions built around sharing social interactions and content in real time the answer? Moderator David Weinberger, Jason Shellen, Paul Lippe, Laura Fitton, Deborah Schultz, Anna-Christina Douglas

I looked at both this session and the session on Mobiles and came away uncertain. What I’d like to hear are “new” real-time examples with deep benefits. Many actions that we now do – eg Tweet a bookmark isn’t new it is just a whole lot simpler to do. Extending the purpose for information and making it easier to share leads to a small percentage of new connections. It seems not everyone is either ready for it or even wants it. However, there is a difference when your job depends on it. Real-time collaboration can also include location – so how does it aid or accelerate escalations to face to face transactions? It seems there is still no replacement.

Overall we’ll see how it goes.

Interesting Background:

• From Conference Calls with Google’s Wave team http://supernovahub.com/2009/10/backstage-with-the-google-wave-team/ ,
• This week in Law’s Denise Howell http://supernovahub.com/2009/11/nov-12-social-networks-and-the-law-in-the-network-age/ and
• Microsoft Researcher Danah Boyd http://supernovahub.com/2009/11/nov-11-class-and-connection-in-the-network-age-with-danah-boyd/ to
• Guest posts from Nokia’s Adam Greenfield http://supernovahub.com/2009/10/guest-post-adam-greenfield-of-nokia-on-urban-systems-design/ to video interviews with
• Wharton’s Eric Clemons (on the theoretical Anti-Trust case against Google http://supernovahub.com/2009/10/eric-clemons-and-the-theoretical-anti-trust-case-against-google/ and
• Internet Guru John Patrick http://supernovahub.com/2009/10/interview_with_john_patrick/ Supernova‘s team has been creating a conversation around the subject of the Network age.

Jamais Cascio (@cascio)a dedicated futurist has written three short articles on Futures Thinking that have appeared in Fast Company. He writes “It’s quite an enjoyable job, as it allows me to indulge my easily-distracted curiosity about the world. If you have read any of my previous posts on scenarios you will see we come from the same basic school of thinking. In Article One he talks about the “wind-tunnel” and asking the question (focal issue), the time frame 10 years (Yes enough for stretch). In Article Two he explores getting to the right question in more detail and the importance of coming to understand dilemmas. And in Article Three (portion clipped below he sums up with scanning upstream.

Futures Thinking: Scanning the World | Open The Future | Fast Company

In Futures Thinking: The Basics, I offered up an overview of how to engage in a foresight exercise. In Futures Thinking: Asking the Question, I explored in more detail the process of setting up a futures exercise, and how to figure out what you’re trying to figure out. In this entry in the occasional series, we’ll take a look at gathering useful data.

Like the first step, Asking the Question, Scanning the World seems like it would be easier than it really is. In my opinion, it may actually be the hardest step of all, because you have to navigate two seemingly contradictory demands:

* You need to expand the horizons of your exploration, because the factors shaping how the future of the dilemma in question will manifest go far beyond the narrow confines of that issue.
* You need to focus your attention on the elements critical to the dilemma, and not get lost in the overwhelming amount of information out there.

These are critical points for any exercise not only a futures exercise. Every company should look up and forward and then with more awareness try and apply some of those lessons on a daily basis. A good futures program should help that.

Jamais remains totally dedicated to thinking about the future and I admire that. Our “roots” in futures both trace back to days with GBN. It’s hard to stay always in the future, no one person can ever adequately know or be sage enough to predict it. Jamais’s writings today are a great reminder of the depth and body of knowledge and tools that has accumulated to keep futures programs and projects grounded and effective. His deep passion for the work comes though. It reinforces for me why I don’t let “scenarios”, better questions and scanning upstream go. Too bad that too few organizations really invest in people with a “futures” mindset. They would be a lot better off.

Just imagine you woke up in 2015. What would you be doing? How would you be interacting with technology? “Nokia – life in 2015″ When I think out six years to 2015 I expect my interactions with technology will be different, I expect we will be describing different types of behaviors. I also find single point descriptions concerning for they are most likely wrong. There’s the planned future (it will never happen), the plausible futures, and the preferred future. Yet scenarios should be challenging, forcing us to think about how the systemic underpinnings may change and upset the applecart. Sometimes scenarios are as important for what they leave out as what they leave in.

So I’m a little confused by this Nokia Scenario or explanation perhaps of what their world will be like in 2015. Listen to it. Pause and reflect and then share your notes with me. (Afterwards you may have to read this post to broaden your perspective) I think this one was live (nokia one here)

First I don’t really buy it. I’m not even sure I want to be a part of it (which should be really concerning). This doesn’t stretch my thinking. I have almost all of these features today. I’m also very concerned by the description that suggests my cloud will be a Nokia cloud. I don’t want that from Nokia, Apple or anyone who may manage to sell me a handset (if I still need one!). I do expect that I’ll have a lot more “streaming” to my handset. I don’t think I’ll use my handset provider to determine what I want. Re time horizon the slight enhancements discussed should be mine well before 2011 kicks in. While the whole world might not have the broadband to make this available that’s fine. Fast n slow mean we will go at different rates and different solutions will emerge.

I’d encourage budding scenarist’s and strategists to never produce just one view of the future. People will say that is wrong. What we need is a set of “Life Challenges” for 2015. Some I might consider “Identity”, “Trading Information”, quasi-cash, real-time, bio-metrics and health, 3D commerce… who knows? I don’t have a focal issue. However if it was “the future of the mobile phone” the first thing we’d discover is it won’t be a mobile phone.

I originally read the above on Nokia Conversations and only then got pointed to Slashgear. Here’s a link to their post about contagious content which nicely sums up the problem for me. There are no plans to address this in the short-term. Yet in a few months it will be a reality and by this time next year there will be many apps that exist to handle it. The concern I have about the “solutions” approach is it doesn’t encourage an active developer community. The preferred future is one we encourage people to go towards and want. I see value in Contagious Content. The rest… well it will take more to motivate and achieve hundreds of millions in sales from this. Here’s another one on SymbianUI apparently not part of the roadmap but needed yesterday and certainly not in 2015.

If you bother to look at the  YouTube  comments they are generally negative.

Nokia in 2015 – The Way We Live Next | Nokia Conversations – The official Nokia Blog

A few snips: nokia data cloud – knowledge sharing – intelligence will make connections between data – jean francois – located to USA fm France. Keeps up with news, business stories, and keep in touch also with bank accounts. can see friends on screen when watching a match.  maria – barcelona student. meeting folks at parties – can touch screen and pull up friends pics. share data streams with boyfriend. Amar – fisherman – projects films at home that he download. tag locations of good catch – so other fishermen can see where it is. also can get weather reports. helps him earn data on fishing trips to a Univ in USA. pay into Nokia online account.

What would the lesson for mobile operators be if the world around us collapses economically. What lessons can be learned from other markets? How will users react?

What and how should you prepare? I read yet another piece this morning (Jim Kunstler’s Forecast 2009) that captures an outlook similar to my own. We’re in a time of great uncertainty and I believe that few companies are really prepared.

In scenario planning projects I’ve lead I’ve always sought to find a “down the cellar stairs” scenario. The dark unknown where management would really rather not go. For the practitioner this is always a challenge. Push too far and it is no longer credible and it won’t be useful to them. Don’t push hard enough and real value creation opportunities are often missed.

Today looking down the cellar stairs really isn’t any easier. Although one only has to look at the huge drops in sales revenues for auto manufacturers to see the tsunami effect that is still a ripple but soon to be a wave crashing down.

This chart borrowed from a report from BCG on “Collateral Damage: Part IV Preparing the the Tough Year Ahead. The Outlook, the Crisis in Perspective, and Lessons from Early Movers. While the series is a generic commentary and mostly good common sense the general tone is not challenging enough in my view.

What I like about this chart is the suggestion of speed. 1-2 weeks to get the scenarios into place. and the 1 month to action POV. What I’m unsure about is what happens beyond the cutting and no regrets actions.

Your program or “cellar project” will fail if:

• Your scenarios don’t address the future and the potential. Short-term scenarios lead to short-term thinking. We have a starting point that is bumpy no doubt and likely to be worse. You have to protect your resources and save the preferable futures. Downsizing stories don’t motivate. The challenge is to motivate the change and make sure there is opportunity and targets on the horizon.
• You don’t bring in people that have different views to the management team. They must be real experts and they may or maynot have any relationship to your business. This is important in two ways. In any group discussion it gets the “politics” out and it can insert new views and challenges into the system quickly. These people must be choosen carefully and understand both how to listen and tell stories.
• To change the company and prepare it for the future you need stories and a way to tell them. They must come from within. I’m not ignoring the need for quick hits, and dramatic action. What’s deplorable is thinking in the context of yesterday or just a broken economy. I also want creative solutions that create new sources of value at the same time.
• You need to make it personal. GM is failing because I can’t understand why anyone wants their products. It begins to work when I hear about the plumber, or the landscape gardener etc.GM’s plans don’t show me that they know anything about the world which their customers face.
• It also a time to take your stories to customers, move efforts that may be cut or are risky — move them into beta if possible. Nothing lost and potentially huge paybacks. Find ways to solve your problems by further engaging those that care most about the business.

Anyone can cut/shrink a business into history. It’s even more difficult to retain the curiosity about the future in such time. In a world with the challenges we have the most valuable employees may be the most curious. These questions can come from unexpected quarters. The question is do you have a way to start the flow? Do you have a way to enable it once started.

I started with a question about mobile operators. In fact the mobile market. As I listen to various reports coming out of GSMA Mobile World Congress of smart phones and the latest app market I simply wonder if the right themes are being addressed in any of these companies.

There’s an upside in the downturn. No matter how bad the economy becomes the very last thing people will give up are their mobile phones. They may change plans, they may not upgrade for years, a ready second hand market may appear, etc. People will not give them up. They are an economic necessity and it certainly one thing the emergence of the mobile has shown us in developing countries.

That means there’s opportunities too.

One thing I think I’d like to see or perhaps put into the BOF session at eComm is a discussion around the economic implications.

I’ve just spent more time reading blogs, catching up on the “we are really screwed views” and know we as a country, economy and people we face incredible challenges. I don’t usually post things like this and particularly two in a row. For frankly I can’t really know the facts.

Quite separately yesterday I was asked by a old friend and scenario planner what I thought about GM. More loans or Bankruptcy courts. I voted for the latter.

Both the GM / Chrysler debacle and the banking fiasco / “rip-off” leave me wondering why the “legal” remedies aren’t being used. In GM or Chrysler’s case they are insolvent. I can see value potentially emerging. Both these businesses still make some excellent vehicles. Whether they are the right ones for the economy ahead is another question. Will they be bought by others? We don’t know. Can any of them standalone? Again we don’t know. I’m just certain that more loans aren’t the way to find out.

Similarly, I fail to understand, no maybe don’t want to accept where banking is headed. More bailouts? That’s not working. The banks are insolvent. If the banks are insolvent then the normal thing would be to nationalize them. That doesn’t mean that the government will remain the “banker” long-term.  But what we are seeing are shenanigans. I’m sure again there are legal remedies and a way forward. Maybe the banks should be headed to the Supreme Court. Those that have a few cents left will soon move their money out of govt banks and into “trusty” assets.

The rule should be massive simplification and transparency. We are likely to get the opposite.

We may as well start seeing if our laws and ways of governance will stand up to the challenge society is faced with. I’m disappointed with the Obama administration and Obama. There never was going to be much patience. He had the mandate to almost play benevolent dictator. He has the power to veto the crap that is being put forward and the “deals” that are being made.  There are other ways to govern. The banks are insolvent. Instead he’s out selling a “stimulus plan” which no-one is fooled by. I thought he could think for himself. Then I live in the state of California and if there was ever a government that can’t think for the betterment of the people then  California illustrates it. Sacramento is probably morally bankrupt too.

These plans aren’t about jobs and they are not about the economy. It’s about those in power trying to remain in power. Read same for the banks.

Over the weekend in some paper I read about the “pots n pans protests” that had taken place in Argentina. It’s nearing that point.

I think we should all be doing some planning. Organizations are still on auto pilot. The challenge is so obvious that it is time to do some really strategic thinking before it is too late. I think it will impact every corner of the business and it isn’t about sustainability anymore it is about grass roots support and survival. I don’t believe in predictions. I do believe in looking at plausible futures that challenge how we do business. Are you planning for a world where there could be 20% unemployment by this time next year? Higher in some parts of the country? Is it on your radar? How are you managing your inventories. What’s your forecast? It is time to think about shocking your system. You need the tools and people to do it. Scenarios and stories are one way to prepare for that.

I’m also ready to protest. I’m also ready for change I can believe in. Oh have I heard that slogan somewhere before?

And…  if I’m crazy you are going to comment and tell me.

I’ve just been reading the Demetry Orlov’s Feb 13 speech via the Long Now Foundation. He tells a story of the collapse of Russia and poses a similar collapse for the US. He points to the importance of Food, Shelter, Transport and Security.  Stewart Brand’s summary is here.

ClubOrlov: Social Collapse Best Practices His summary points to potential strategies. As Americans should this future come to pass it is one few are prepared for.

It’s a challenging doom scenario for most of us. It is the end of life as we know it. Yet many of the of the elements are already in play. The collapse of the financial system, the destruction of the housing market and the inevitablity that oil and transport won’t run SUV’s.

I’m getting enough “signals” like these that it’s no longer just a “radical” talking on the fringes. I’ve got other friends who may see it differently that are even today organizing “grass roots” solutions to encourage change. See the We20 initiative and join it on Facebook.

There’s one item that isn’t discussed in Orlov’s presentation. That’s communication. No one had cellphones in Russia at that time. I happen to think communications will play a key part in how our society evolves and the solutions we find. While the current powers (incumbents) are traditional and will hold on to the old model almost at anycost it may be a good idea to start floating this view of the world internally.

If this scenario is certain… what’s the communication strategy for the carrier? What is it you need to know? Handsets etc?

I’ve been writing this post in my mind since 26/11 and the Mumbai Terrorist Attacks. These attacks hit me at my core and were assault on my values, my friends, my beliefs on how we should work and live together. With messages from @dina and on Twitter it hit my screen instantly. I was soon watching it live on Indian TV.

For me Mumbai Terror was personally more impactful than the 9/11 twin towers which I saw brought down live on TV. I’d been to the top of the Twin Towers (WTC) and underlying it was an act against America. It was something I could understand. It was symbolic and while deplorable, despicable and wrong it didn’t change too much around me. It grounded the planes and I didn’t make a business trip. It was a lapse in our security. It was a few people and it should have been stopped long before it happened.

Our responses as a nation after that event have not made the world safer. Mumbai brings that home!

For Mumbai the Taj  is an icon every bit as powerful as the World Trade Center in New York was. It too is a center of power and a symbol both historical and of prosperity. I’ve had tea at the Taj. I’ve looked out the windows from the Sea Lounge at the Gate of India. It’s a place where business, entertainment and tourism is done. This symbol is every bit as important (vs WTC) to India and probably more important than attacking a government building.

Terrorist attacks in Mumbai made terrorism real for the whole world. It wasn’t just Americans killed, and the stories that are being broadcast back to the US are going to other countries too. For the first time, my first point of information was NDTV, links to which I got off Twitter. That’s India television streamed live over the Internet from the first minutes. I heard Indian announcers, I heard real voices talking about it in real time. It wasn’t filtered with an American accent. Within seconds I was also seeing a whole lot of on Twitter #Mumbai.

Like at the WTC, only a few terrorists were involved in Mumbai. 10. That so few can terrorize so many is completely wrong. The damage is massive and under-rated at this time. Half a world away I directly felt the effects as “travel bans” were put into effect by large US corporates killing Mosoci projects planned in December. I’m sure “flights” to Mumbai are cheaper today. This of course is minor by comparison to those killed or maimed.

Let’s look at the Global Corporate reaction. They say, let’s put in place a travel ban! Look people it is not a war. It should not lead to war! Putting in a travel ban just plays to the few and wreaks havoc on the earnings of many. By all means change hotels. Be smarter about security but like Suketu Mehta wrote in the NYTimes it doesn’t worry me. Going to India is as safe as anywhere else right now. And in my simple opinion the airport security is always way better than it is in the US. It’s a good place to start.

Corporates should be part of the solution.What corporates have said they will step forward? Are they prepared to publicly create reviews (wikis) on tech and materials gaps? Are they analysing how well the communications and emergency response systems worked? What did they learn from social media and the impact of Internet? If you are a large corporate with ties to India you need to think hard about your strategies and how you might move forward.

I think the world has changed. Rather than pull back perhaps you should consider what you can do to move the world forward.

Some reasons why i believe the world has changed:

1. The Taj assault was a dramatic and impactful follow up to 9/11. Global governments have failed since 9/11 to make the world a safer place. All governments are culpable. Terrorism now strikes anywhere and will almost always involve a global audience and instantaneous reporting and live accounts. The reporting tools depending on the location are only getting smarter and easier for anyone in the street to use. Terrorists can attack anywhere. Mumbai is not an “armed” society. Nor are other large metropolises around the world. Anyone with an AK-47 could raise havoc quickly. Heads are already rolling in India, ministers have resigned. I see that as window-dressing. Terrorism won’t ultimately be solved with more guns, and security. We have to fix the factors that lead to it in the first place.

2. Mumbai, while a growing financial capital, is more about trade and a growing economy. 1 billion people won’t and can’t be ignored, it is too big a prize for global multinationals. Should they protect their officers with armoured cars and extra guards? No I don’t think so as it hasn’t worked anywhere. If anything, corporate travel bans are wrong. We should run faster to provide help and support. That support should not be given to governments. Instead we need new vehicles to provide the help. Just like the reporting, these need to be self-organizing in the places where it can help. It can help where terrorists are breeding in the first place. The help in Mumbai after the clean up is how to make the populace more self-aware and be more willing to report concerns.

3. That such small groups can have such a large impact and capture so much television is wrong. It’s community apathy and terror that has lead us down this path. We all need to understand the roots of terrorism better and actively do something about it. Youth and young people don’t just accidentally turn into martyrs and follow suicide missions. I’ve also seen some posts on bullying something I had more than my fair share of as a child. Terrorists are bullies and we should take more action to address them like that and early on.

4. Governments are failing to protect the people. As I sit and write (I hope purposely a little provocatively) I watch governments handing money over to bankers, a destroyed banking systems, poor uses of funds everywhere and layers of bureaucracy in heath care and contracts that is just another form of graft. Add in communications policies and watch a war that should have never started in Iraq and you realize that the complicity or duplicity is global not national. It may be my background (Brit, US, Kiwi) but my identity is global not local and my friends are global, my business is global and I have come to expect very little of my various governments. So for the most part I take things into my own hands and have done very little about or to understand the root causes of terrorism. Till last week it was never in my backyard. I now wonder how I can help to change it.

5. Connectivity too had a new resilience. The world could watch via NDTV not via CNN. While the numbers may still be small, Twitter and blogs rapidly began capturing information. It provided more transparency and put a more personal face on the tragedy as it unfolded. As a QIK user and as the London attacks showed video is now just a mobile away. Flickr quickly became a repository for latest pictures. In fact the combined updates on search.twitter.com #mumbai rapidly came faster than updates on the live newscasts and from more directions. They also suffered new problems and issues. Eg were Tweeter’s giving away important info etc. For the most part, common sense prevailed in the early days and hours. The beliefs of open channels / fact checking were spelt out by a few Tweeters @dina included. It’s important to see this form of communication as open and unmediated and self-correcting. You can’t control it. If someone will Tweet a police position and not use common sense then it may pay to put some more time into educating in “common sense”.

Terrorism is now in my backyard.  You, me, all of us, we need to acknowledge it. We will not be bullied. What if I put in 5% of my time/resources into stopping it? Or even a larger percentage. What commitment can I make? Really we need to be more vigilant as a society.

Sometimes reminders and special conversations come out of the blue – unexpectedly. I had one of those Phweet calls today with @transitioner which pointed me back to the work of an old friend Jean Francois Noubel which is perhaps more relevant than ever today. If nothing else just read the description for the conference and think about banks, mobility, and the rise of our networks. This description resonated with me.

Conference Nov. 2008 Mexico – The Future of Money: how millions of currencies are going to change the world – TheTransitioner – Pioneers

What no one anticipates is that money is about to follow the same path the media followed during the past years; from controlled ownership of media with one-way top down broadcast systems, to peer-to-peer, participatory, open publishing. Millions of free currencies will soon circulate on the Net and through our cell phones. They will not be controlled by states or central banks, they will be issued and used by millions of marketplaces willing to free themselves from conventional debt-based, interest-based money (85% to 95% of money circulating today). Everyone will use these free currencies simply because they will be ubiquitous, easy to integrate into current media technologies, and because most people and organizations are undermonetized.

This new paradigm is likely to turn the current monetary system into a completely obsolete system. The next one will offer marketplaces the capacity to maximize their trade potential with the ever right amount of monetary mass at their disposal.

Among the current projects expressing this evolution, the FreeCurrency project is certainly the most advanced one. Next currencies platforms will be available on the Internet by 2009. It will be free and open source. It will provide the next open global interoperable infrastructure for the millions currencies to be easily issued in a peer-to-peer way. It will be easy to use via computers and cell phones, making it accessible to the majority of humanity. User interfaces will be sexy and very user friendly.

Early players such as banks, telecom companies, dotcoms, developing countries, entrepreneurs who will anticipate and accompany this evolution will get an incredible first mover advantage.

Our civilization is changing and all forecasters talk about the revolution in technology and cooperation and globalization. The shift we will see from money will be from a scarcity model to one that is sufficient. In this way, it will fundamentally shift human relationships and consciousness to a new place.

Next week on Tuesday June 3rd Kevin Werbach is hosting a pre Supernova conference call about the meaning of openness in a networked world. This could be an interesting discussion and pull in quite a wide group of people. Details to obtain the dial in number are below.

On Tuesday, June 3rd, from 9am-11am PT (12pm-1pm ET), I will host an interactive conference call and chat on “Open Flow” — the technologies and business practices that allow information to move freely between users, websites, and organizations. This is a precursor to a track at Supernova 2008, sponsored by BT, on June 17 in San Francisco.

To receive dial-in information, please RSVP by replying to this email at openflow@supernova2008.com.

Topics we will address on the call will include: What are the key issues around interconnecting social networks, identity systems, and online applications? Is openness always a good thing? How do open networks change business models, as well as processes within companies? What new opportunities emerge in an Open Flow environment?

Participation is free and open to anyone interested.

Yesterday I posted this blog Emerging Markets and Mobile Impact on the Supernova2008 ConversationHub and I wanted to share it here too. My interest in doing Market Research into Indian opportunities is not limited to mobile, or technology. Banks, Financial Institutions, Healthcare, Consumer Products etc. It just traces to the size of the opportunity and the influence a booming emerging India is likely to impact on the world.It’s easy to think that things happen the same there and will evolve along the same trajectories as they have in the Western world. That’s not the case. Example: Banks send cash home to you with just a phone call. There are also many more reasons for it remaining a cash centric society for now. Below I’ve again talked about Mobile and I sense for many that after the mobile “if” they buy a PC or laptop they may have different needs. They will come at it differently.

Separately, it has never been clearer to me that company’s that get research done without participating locally are losing a huge opportunity to learn and find ways to be more innovative. It’s not the same as doing groups in Atlanta. If you send a researcher (prefer a small team) and they don’t see the context then the interpretation is likely to be faulty. More importantly it is the pheripheral stories that contextualize the learnings they are the things that are taken back. It’s just another reason why I believe a Learning Journey element should be part of every deep dive into India. Just so happens we could help you with that too.

Emerging Markets and Mobile Impact

I’ve become more and more interested in how technology is spreading in emerging markets. Often I think we come at it from a top down approach. The technology and the prices will filter down. Ultimately, it will reach the lower income groups. In simplistic terms this is what we have seen in the Western world. First with landline telephones and TV’s, later with computers and more recently with mobile phones. This doesn’t fit with emerging markets.

In Emerging Markets the bottom of the pyramid are being revolutionized by the mobile phone. A purchase that now comes before the TV, the Radio, perhaps even the LPG stovetop. Increasingly these devices offer more. While we have typically rejected all in one devices here they make sense. It costs nothing to add in a radio, or playback of MP3′s. The mobile even tells the time. In fact these items can be made more tangible by making speakers more visible and louder, making screens larger etc. Watch and hear may help those that are illiterate. This fits with the sense of “value” that exists.

The mobile is making low income groups more efficient and productive. Less time waiting and more time working or getting a better price etc. It will also mean they come at other technology products from a mobile technology perspective. Will one of these users ever part with a mobile and want a laptop instead? What if your next choice is a used smart phone or a laptop? What are the trade-offs? Or will you just settle for a TV and make the phone last longer. My bet is on trading up or passing on the computer or TV.

Here we have stopped thinking about bazaar’s and marketplaces. We go to the supermarket. It’s a very very fortunate few that can go to a tailor or have their clothes made. Yet when I walk around India I see vege traders, and sari makers everywhere. They both make efficient use of their inventory and their labor. I see use of missed calls to make “tacit connections” at no cost. I see SMS use and notifiers growing. In fact many of these users are subscribing to SMS notification services for sports and business because they want that greater connection. They are not yet overwhelmed. They are in effect on an accelerated course of “connectivity”. We need to look here to see how mobility and knowledge sharing is changing.

A few question for me are… How could this connectivity emerge in new networking services? What will the impact be of GPS location specific information with high population density? Will GPS have even more value to this emergent group than it has to us who are worried about privacy, marketing messages and unwanted interruptions? Is it likely that the really powerful social networks of the future emerge from the bottom up rather than the top down. Philosophically I hope so. The best chance for P2P is probably in this emerging world.

I also see is Nokia and Google making moves re location based services that are targeted at geo location on photos and artifacts. That’s cool ultimately, it’s not an emerging market demand. Where I see the real potential is in cities like Mumbai where the density is such that geo location enables all sorts of new connections between traders and workers. A tweet that says I need a key cutter may find one less than a kilometer away. They can help me get entry. A tweet might also bring a rickshaw without a central taxi office. It may also find someone to share coffee with just like here.

A few what if questions and thoughts:

• If Mobile operators there were to give mapping and location data away for free (even cell tower triangulation) the SMS models and volumes it could stimulate could have a really innovative payback.
• If they would set up an SMS system with a single public code that can broadcast to RSS…. then twitter like service becomes possible, a user can create “follower” and notification packages etc. Again the stream could be given away / free. Signup can simply be your “handle” with a confirmation back. Commercial services would pay. The handle is not a number in the feed.

For other recent thoughts on India I wrote a series of posts Dina summarized for me.

• India World’s Fastest Growing Mobile Market- recent statistics on the mobile phone market in India and the need for all-in-one phones
• “China Phone”” Beats Nokia N95 in Boombox Test- BOOM. We are really psyched by the volume on these phones and feel sheepish when we try and compete with our N-Series Nokias!
• The Emerging Indian Middle Class- beginning to question what is the middle class really, after visiting with folks at Dharavi – our largest slum
• It All Comes Out in the Wash-
  one of Mumbai’s showcases for tourists – hmmm. Intriguing nonetheless
  in how they organize themselves and the truckloads of laundry
• From the Mouths of Kids – Mobile Insight- meeting some really smart kids from Dharavi who educate us about China Phones despite not owning one themselves!
• Manish Market and the New Mobile Ghetto Blasters – discovering and observing Manish Market – an alternative wholesale, retail, repair and service culture all of its own
• Prince A950 — My China Phone – Think Different where he reviews his spanking new China Phone
• Emerging Market – Research to Action-
  are you learning from countries like India? Stuart makes the case for
  companies to not just rely on focus groups and interviews, but to get
  out there on the field. They insights come out of understanding the
  “friction” between different needs and environmental factors.
• Repairs, Tweaks and Choice – Mobile Phones-
  aaah check out our friendly neighbourhood computer and mobile guys – we
  trust them more than the “companies” to solve our problems!
• Modding the 3G iPhone – Cracking the Case – there’s a whole hardware market for the iPhone coming from Asia

While recently in India, Dina and I explored the iPhone factor. We saw it in the wild (eg. people using them) and talked to 18 to 24 year old leading-edge mobile users in Mumbai. We were both left a little shocked! While focus groups aren’t statistical research and Mumbai is hardly an Apple stronghold; the iTunes store is not even available in India. The comments and the future of the mobile in India and in fact, across the world, is beginning to look profoundly different.

From Phone to Computer in my Pocket.

First a little about the 18 to 24 year olds we were talking to. Evenly split m/f most were in college or just finishing up. Not one could imagine life without a cellphone. On average they were spending about 1000 rupees per month ($25) on a prepaid plan. Postpaid plans were not popular. This group was uneasy if their balance got below 200 and would then top it up. All had Nokia or Sony-Ericsson phones. All phones were recent models. The oldest would have been 18 months max. Typically they all want to trade it in once per year. Cost of the phones. They put their budgets at 12000 to 18000 rupees… so $250 to $400 so all were targeting high-end phones. Daddy and mummy were paying and they would get it as a birthday or special holiday gift.

They said they called as often as texted (the cost of a one min call vs a text is similar) and I’d think efficient with calls. None of these would have had voice mail. Prepaid plans don’t provide it and in India the “missed call” is an important signal. They also make international calls to friends overseas. Often connecting via cellphones and then moving to MSN or Skype for video conferencing. Note they often don’t have sole access to a computer, it may be shared and often in a fairly pubic place. The personal stuff and communications are on their mobiles.

Mobile phones are a high interest topic and item of status amongst these kids. (Similarly here! My daughter came home and said one of her best friends got an iPhone for her 16th birthday; now she wants one – at her cost re the plan!) They are very aware of brands, and features. Moving between makes (eg Nokia to Sony Ericsson) can be a hassle for moving contacts etc. They all want better cameras, they don’t see why they shouldn’t be incorporated. They also wanted memory cards in standard formats that would work across devices; all the sizes are a hassle. Without exception they wanted faster battery life.

When asked about their ideal mobiles they became animated and started talking the iPhone. Interestingly they identified it as having WiFi but didn’t make this connection with Nokia N-Series phones. In fact they were quite damming when it came to Nokia which is far and away the market leader. Example they saw the N95 and other slider phones as problematic. The stick is still a great format. The N95 was seen as very over-priced.

When it came to the iPhone they were quick to list its failings as well. Commenting on music sharing limitation and the lack of a decent camera and no flash.

For this group; the iPhone and Apple were clearly the aspirational brand. In fact they talked at length about budgets and basically how they would negotiate with their parents to set up the purchase of the iPhone as their next mobile. A lot had to do with iPods and music and consolidated lifestyle. All-in-one is popular in India. It’s never really applied to a small computing device before. However mobiles have radios, mp3 players and cameras in them as standard almost. This all in one with video etc… makes this even more attractive.

When it came to describing brands and their attributes; Nokia was the clear winner for everyone, providing versatility, resale, general performance etc. ( think Toyota in America or like Shahrukh Khan one of Bollywood’s leading men). It’s a little past its prime with this group, not sexy and yet their next phone may still be a Nokia. By contrast the Sony Ericsson brand came across with these users as more sexy. They have a very edgy music campaign with a big Bollywood star (Hrithik Roshan) which appears to have been successful in the last year. The “Shake” in songs is both a neat design solution and working.

This group roundly dismissed the “China Phone” as beneath them. Although they were quick to point out all the features and recognize that loud sound was cool. Yet with no brand, poor resale and no advertising these phones will remain niche and companies like Sony Ericsson will adopt “Shake” features in their own phones and branding. This group won’t be trading down.

Touch is the new aspiration. HTC was mentioned along with Apple as the phones to look at and desire. HTC was first with Touch type phones we were told. They also talked about these devices as being the new laptop, the new way to be always able to connect.

When designing their mobile phones (if you were the designer) they talked of “modding”. They wanted modular hardware and ways to trade up or enhance or keep the phone up to date or perhaps personalize and extend its life. They see modding the iPhone with new hardware upgrades as well as software. In fact they would go even further and like to see it shipped as a bare bones chassis, select the case, the camera, the memory etc. It’s perhaps not surprising they see it this way. They have their PC’s assembled or cobbled together. They have service and repair guys that can put these things together and cellphone parts are visible everywhere. There’s a good chance this market will emerge anyways. They also wanted things faster, easier, and simpler. This has a lot to do with entertainment updates.

So what did I learn?
The iPhone potential is bigger than I would have expected. The opportunity for carriers to convert users to postpaid from prepaid accounts will be huge and fought for. Vodaphone probably has themselves a sweet deal and position with the iPhone in India. They go premium end and lock high end users into data etc. (Even if 3G isn’t even close!). India could well be a larger iPhone market than the US in months rather than years.

There’s a new world to be addressed in parts, modding and retailing the iPhone in India. It’s going to harder than Apple might think. It would be a good time to open some more visible stores quick in the major cities. They better be HUGE! Plenty of malls being built.

Nokia may be in trouble, it faces a huge challenge at both the bottom end with products that are doing more… particularly as entertainment devices, and at the top end by having nothing that comes close to competing with the iPhone. They are about to get squeezed. They still have more banners, more phones, more retail outlets etc than anyone else. Still their outlets aren’t going to be sexy enough when Apple stores launch. Sony has built some awesome Lifestyle stores in India, I’d say they are having an impact. Mobiles alone aren’t enough and the perception in India is you are getting a “usable” lot more with the iPhone.

Net Net. Leading users simply “lust” after the iPhone; even in India.