The Future is Inherently Unpredictable

December 2, 2008

in general

Phil Wolff put this comparison up in a recent blog post. The thing is I wrote a lot of scenarios and participated in many future exercises in the late 90’s and early 00’s. I don’t think I ever managed a storyline then that could explain how a Mumbai-like response would emerge in 2008.

Skype Journal

And the Internet is only five thousand days old.

In 2001 our global blogosphere shared the horror of the 9/11 attacks.

In 2008 our global mediasphere tweeted, blogged, Blackberried, tagged, digged, YouTubed, streamed, Skyped, IM’d the horror of the #Mumbai attacks.

What could it be like at day 10k? 20k?

On my own I’m not prepared to predict what a 2015 response might be. However with the wisdom of a small crowd and a focal question it would be a fun session to run.

Globally and individually reporting on #Mumbai 26/11 was more interesting and I think overall an improvement. More raw unmediated data also means new challenges. Concurrently the power that CNN is capturing in blog/tweets is quite possible a real threat to the former bastions of text… newspapers and their online capabilities. Lots of ways and scenarios could be developed here.

We know the future will be different. What really struck me was the pace of this change. In 2001 we barely had blogs. Then I got the real inside perspectives from email lists.

Now next generation media tools are already available…  I’m starting to think CNN gets this and a year ago I wouldn’t have said that. Potentially a good example of how a social strategy is taking them in powerful new directions. Other stations should rapidly follow. It was obvious when looking at the NDTV feed that they are with it (beta internet live feed) and yet haven’t gone nearly far enough.

More counter intuitive thinking is required!

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